China: Near-term weekly outlook on key steel products

• • Seasonal demand weakness to keep Chinese steel prices under pressure

• • Production cuts, lower inventories to offer limited support to HRC prices

Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.

Rebar & wire rod: China’s prices of the two major long steel items are expected to extend slight declines over 27-31 July. While the overall supply pressure stays modest despite mills’ higher output in the past week, sluggish downstream demand amid the summer lull and waning cost-side support are likely to weigh on long steel prices this week.

Hot-rolled coil: Chinese HRC prices are projected to be slightly volatile this week. Supply pressure for the flat steel product may ease as more mills start to curtail production for maintenance, with HRC inventories thinning slightly further. However, subdued downstream demand in the typical off-season and a worsening export environment still pose downside pressure on HRC prices.

Cold-rolled coil: CRC prices are likely to drop slightly over the week ending 31 July. Market caution is expected to persist alongside tepid spot transactions in the near-term market as most end-users only purchase stocks to meet their immediate production needs. Most traders opt to lower their offer prices to liquidate stocks as the end of the month approaches, which will weigh down CRC prices to some extent.

Medium plate: Medium plate prices are expected to hover around current levels over 27-31 July. Among major downstream sectors, only shipbuilding is providing steady demand for medium plate, while plate orders from the infrastructure and machinery sectors remain under pressure due to high temperatures and frequent rainfall across much of China. As such, medium plate traders are eager to clear their stocks, with most of them willing to offer discounts to facilitate sales.

Sections: Steel section prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow band over 27-31 July. Supply for steel sections contracted last week as some re-rollers suspended production for maintenance, but limited cash flow dampened end-users’ interest in replenishing stocks. Against this background, most traders are expected to continue to offer larger discounts to conclude deals this week, though downstream demand may stay subdued in the short run.

Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.