Turkish steel imports exceed new EU quotas within two weeks of implementation

• • Flat products, including HRCs, coated flats, see sharpest oversubscription

• • Access to additional quotas for FTA partners could soften tariff impact

Turkish steel exports to the European Union have exceeded newly introduced country-specific tariff rate quotas (TRQs) by a wide margin within two weeks of their implementation, highlighting the challenges exporters face after Brussels sharply tightened steel import restrictions.

According to market intelligence provider MEPS, import applications for Turkish steel surpassed allocated quotas by around 438,000 tonnes (t) between 1 July, when the revised regime came into force, and 13 July. The oversubscription raises the likelihood that a significant share of Turkish shipments will attract the EU’s new 50% out-of-quota tariff.

Quota cuts tighten market access:

The European Union introduced a new steel import regime on 1 July after its long-standing safeguard measures expired. Under the new framework, annual tariff-free steel imports have been reduced to 18.3 million tonnes (mnt), down about 47% from 2024 levels, while the tariff on imports exceeding quotas has doubled to 50% from 25%.

Turkiye, one of the EU’s largest external steel suppliers, received an annual country-specific quota of about 2.7 mnt, around 39% lower than the previous allocation. Although the reduction is smaller than the overall cut in EU quotas, market participants said it remains insufficient to accommodate Turkiye’s traditional export volumes into the bloc.

The EU allocates country-specific quotas to suppliers accounting for at least 5% of imports in individual product categories during the 2022 to 2024 reference period.

Flat steel products record largest overshoot:

Oversubscription was most severe in flat steel products.

Applications for Turkish hot-rolled steel sheets and steel bars under product category 1A exceeded the July to September quota of 160,574 t by around 135%.

Inflows of coated steel products also remained strong. Applications for category 4A metallic coated sheet exceeded the quota of 69,925 t by more than 85%, while category 4B applications were roughly 90% above the allocated volume.

Long products exporters also exhausted quotas quickly. Turkish rebar applications exceeded the third-quarter quota of 59,919 t by around 80%, while applications for non-alloy and alloy wire rod surpassed the 61,147-tonne allocation by more than 50%.

The rapid exhaustion reflects exporters’ efforts to secure customs clearance before additional tariff costs become unavoidable.

Blocking period creates uncertainty:

The EU operates a “blocking period” at the start of each quota quarter, temporarily suspending customs clearance applications while quota allocations are processed.

As a result, some shipments submitted during the first half of July could ultimately be cleared only after quotas have been exhausted, exposing them to the new 50% tariff.

The final financial impact will depend on whether exporters can access supplementary tariff-free quotas reserved for countries that have free trade agreements with the EU.

Additional quotas could soften tariff impact:

Turkiye’s free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU allows exporters to compete for additional tariff-free quotas once national allocations are exhausted.

The EU has reserved 9.15 mnt, or half of its total annual quota, for FTA partner countries on a first come, first served basis. However, market participants said the allocation process remains unclear, creating uncertainty for importers and exporters.

MEPS estimates that if Turkish hot-rolled coil shipments fail to secure additional quota allocations, exporters could face an additional tariff cost of around EUR 180/t. If they are able to fully utilise the supplementary quotas, the additional burden could fall to roughly EUR 80/t.

The speed at which Turkish quotas have been exhausted suggests competition for the remaining tariff-free allocations will intensify during the current quarter, potentially increasing import costs for European buyers and reducing Turkiye’s competitiveness in one of its largest export markets.

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