India: PELLEX rises INR 200/t as supply shortens for near-term

• • Maintenance shutdown and operational halts kept market tight

• • Buyers turn to cautious note, refrain from bulk buys

PELLEX, BigMint’s bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index for Raipur, rose by INR 200/t to 9,400/t ($99.5/t) DAP on 14 July against 10 July 2026.

Pellet prices in the Raipur region gained momentum as sellers revised their offerings on an incremental note. The hike was fueled by the recent production cuts for pellets amid continuous inavailablity of natural gas which raised production costs and hampered operations. Significant pellet makers from the region keeping either sales closed or taken maintenance shut-down for the coming days of this month.

Multiple sellers remained away from sales in the amrket creating a slight deficit of material in the locality. Moreover, this was followed by a price surge, by rest of the remaining players. However, overall market sentiment has turned cautious after NMDC announced a reduction in iron ore prices for July, prompting buyers to step back and reassess procurement strategies.

Rationale:

• • PELLEX has been derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids. To download the detailed methodology, click here.

• • Zero (0) deals were recorded in this publishing window, and thus, three were taken for calculation. Thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.

• • Seventeen (17) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard, and fourteen (14) were taken for price calculation and given the balance 100% weightage.

Price movements and offers:

Pellet producers in Raipur lifted offers for Fe 62.5/63% (0.5%) grade pellets to INR 9,300-9,400/t ($97-98/t) exw. Despite the cautious outlook, while a few sellers have temporarily suspended sales, opting to monitor market developments before entering new negotiations. No deal has been recorded in this publishing window so far.

Market scenario:

Market sentiment turned cautious following NMDC’s reduction in iron ore fines prices, with buyers adopting a wait-and-watch approach amid sluggish downstream steel demand. Market participants said sales of sponge iron, billets and rebar have remained slow, prompting steelmakers to limit pellet procurement to immediate production requirements until a clearer pricing direction emerges.

A Raipur-based pellet producer said, “Multiple pellet plants have stayed away from the market over the past one to two weeks, reducing the number of offers available for domestic sales. The recently announced operational shutdown at another major pellet plant has further tightened spot availability.”

Despite the tighter supply, buyers remained cautious after NMDC reduced iron ore prices for July. Although mills generally prefer pellets during the monsoon, the transition will take a few more weeks, and buyers are in no hurry to build inventories until the market settles.”

Market participants said the domestic pellet market is currently assessing the impact of NMDC’s latest price revision, with buyers delaying fresh bookings while monitoring downstream demand. However, producers expect the market to strengthen as monsoon-driven pellet consumption gathers pace and export commitments continue to absorb a sizeable share of domestic production, potentially tightening spot availability and supporting prices towards the end of the month.

Key market drivers:

• • Sponge iron prices edge up w-o-w: Sponge PDRI prices increased by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 23,300/t ($242/t) exw Raipur on 14 July. Moreover, prices in Raipur recently gained INR 350/t d-o-d. Despite the upward price movement, the sponge iron market continued to face marginal pressure. Sellers raised offers only in a limited manner as weak downstream demand restricted aggressive price hikes. While the improved sentiment has slightly boosted seller confidence, muted consumption and cautious buying continue to cap market momentum, resulting in softer trade volumes at elevated prices.

• • Billet prices decrease w-o-w: BigMint’s billet index in Raipur fell by INR 400/t ($4/t) w-o-w to INR 37,600/t ($391/t) exw on 14 July. However, the index increased by INR 150/t d-o-d. Prices found support on a d-o-d basis due to improved booking activity in both the semi-finished and finished steel segments across major regions. A gradual recovery in sales activity, coupled with active bookings during yesterday’s trading session, further strengthened market sentiment and provided additional support to prices.

Outlook:

BigMint expects that Raipur pellet prices will remain supported amid the announced production cuts by major producers, and preference for pellets due to rain will keep pellet in demand.