India: HRC export activity remains subdued amid muted buying interest

• • Quota uncertainty, high inventories weigh on EU demand

• • Middle East sentiment mixed despite progress in US-Iran talks

Indian HRC export activity remained subdued during the assessment week ended 23 June 2026, as weak demand and cautious buying sentiment across key destinations continued to weigh on trading activity, with market participants largely adopting a wait-and-watch stance amid an uncertain trade environment.

Indian HRC export offers to the EU decline w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU declined by $5/t w-o-w to around $620/t FOB, compared with $625/t a week earlier. However, trading activity remained largely subdued, with no fresh bookings reported during the assessment period, as buyers remained cautious amid uncertainty over country-specific quota allocations under the EU’s revised steel trade defence framework.

An EU-based source indicated, “There is still no clarity regarding the allocation of country-specific quotas under the revised safeguard framework, which continues to weigh on buying interest. Until there is greater visibility on how quotas will be distributed among exporting countries and what volumes will be available, buyers are largely adopting a wait-and-watch approach, resulting in cautious market sentiment and subdued trading activity.”

Another regional source added that market sentiment in the EU remains weak, with elevated inventories further weighing on demand and limiting the need for fresh restocking. As a result, market activity remains subdued, with no recent bookings reported in the EU.

HRC export offers to Middle East, Southeast Asia decline w-o-w: Indian HRC export index to the Middle East and Southeast Asia declined by $5/t w-o-w to around $545/t FOB, compared with $550/t a week earlier. The decline was primarily driven by lower offer levels to the Middle East and Vietnam amid subdued buying interest and increased competitive pressure in these markets.

Offers to the Middle East fell by $5/t w-o-w to $550/t FOB from $555/t a week ago, with freight to Fujairah estimated at around $45-50/t. Chinese HRC export offers to the region also softened, declining by $10/t w-o-w to approximately $580/t CFR Jeddah from $590/t in the previous week. Similarly, Indian HRC export offers to Vietnam decreased by $10/t w-o-w to around $550/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City, compared with $560/t a week earlier.

A Middle East-based source noted, “There has been no noticeable improvement in the situation so far, and market sentiment remains mixed and cautious. While the Switzerland talks between the US and Iran have produced a roadmap toward a permanent agreement within the next 60 days, the situation on the ground remains largely unchanged. Sentiment has improved on hopes that the agreement could help ease tensions; however, confidence remains limited as market participants await tangible progress. The impact on trade and shipping is expected to take time to materialise and will depend on how quickly normal trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored. Until then, buyers are likely to remain in a wait-and-watch mode, keeping overall sentiment cautious.”

Outlook:

Indian HRC export activity is expected to remain under pressure in the coming days, with trading activity likely to stay muted amid weak demand and persistent uncertainty in global trade conditions. In the EU, buying interest is likely to remain subdued until greater clarity emerges on country-specific quota allocations under the revised safeguard framework, while elevated inventories continue to weigh on restocking activity.

In the Middle East, although geopolitical discussions between the US and Iran have supported some improvement in sentiment, any meaningful impact on trade flows will depend on how quickly trade activity normalises and shipping conditions improve, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the market in a wait-and-watch mode.