Tight supply, energy uncertainty support thermal coal prices in Atlantic market

• • South African coal production declines 2% m-o-m in Jan’26

• • High gas prices, weaker wind power output lift coal demand

Thermal coal markets in the Atlantic basin are showing signs of tightening supply while broader energy market uncertainty continues to support prices.

Recent data indicates that South African coal production fell to 18 million tonnes (mnt) in January, declining 1.8% m-o-m and 0.7% y-o-y. Output was also around 1.3 mnt below the average monthly production since 2021, which is close to 19.3 mnt.

South Africa is one of the key suppliers to the seaborne Atlantic coal market, particularly for utilities in Europe and the Mediterranean region. Lower production levels, therefore, have the potential to influence global supply availability.

Despite the decline in production, exports have remained relatively steady so far. This is partly because domestic coal consumption in South Africa has softened in recent years, allowing a larger share of production to move into export markets.

Coal prices across the Atlantic market have therefore remained firm.

Coal benchmark price changes:

Recent market assessments show:

• • FOB Richards Bay 6000 kcal: $108.75/t, up $0.75 d-o-d

• • FOB Richards Bay 5700 kcal: $103.50/t, unchanged d-o-d

• • FOB Richards Bay 5500 kcal: $96/t, unchanged d-o-d

• • DES ARA (Europe): $123/t, up $1.50 d-o-d

Forward markets have also strengthened. The Q2 2026 DES ARA coal contract recently traded around $128.45/t, rising $3.45 d-o-d, while longer-term contracts for 2027 also moved higher.

These price movements suggest that market participants are increasingly factoring in potential supply tightness across the Atlantic coal market.

Energy market volatility, weather factors support demand:

Several factors are helping to keep coal prices supported despite weaker industrial activity in parts of Europe. First, global energy markets remain volatile because of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concerns about potential disruptions to oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed energy markets higher in recent weeks.

European gas prices remain relatively elevated. The TTF Q2 2026 gas contract recently traded around EUR 50.90/MWh, reflecting continued uncertainty over gas supply conditions. At the same time, European gas storage levels are currently around 29.3%, compared with 36.4% at the same time last year. Lower storage levels increase the risk of tighter supply if demand rises later in the year.

Weather conditions are also influencing electricity generation patterns across Europe. Wind generation across Central and Western Europe has recently been around half of normal seasonal levels, reducing renewable electricity supply. When wind output falls, electricity systems often rely more heavily on thermal power sources such as coal or gas to maintain grid stability. Solar generation is expected to recover in the coming days, but the current period of weaker wind output has helped support coal demand in the power sector.

These developments mean that coal continues to play an important balancing role in Europe’s energy system when renewable generation fluctuates and gas markets remain uncertain.

Outlook: Coal prices likely to remain supported:

Looking ahead, the Atlantic coal market is likely to remain influenced by both supply developments and the broader energy environment. On the supply side, lower coal production in South Africa could tighten seaborne availability if output does not recover in the coming months. South Africa remains one of the main sources of thermal coal for European utilities, and sustained production weakness could reduce export volumes.

On the demand side, the outlook remains mixed. Europe’s industrial sector is showing signs of weakness, which could limit electricity demand growth in the medium term. Slower manufacturing activity may therefore reduce coal consumption across parts of the region.

However, several factors could continue to support coal demand in the short term: volatile global gas prices, relatively low European gas storage levels, fluctuations in renewable generation, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty affecting global energy supply.

If these conditions persist, coal could continue to play a stabilising role in the European power system.

As a result, the Atlantic coal market appears to be entering a phase where tight supply conditions and broader energy uncertainty are providing a strong floor for prices, even as economic signals from some consuming regions remain mixed.