China: Iron ore imports rise 10% y-o-y in Jan-Feb’26 on higher Australian shipments

• • Uptick in hot metal output lifts ore demand

• • Iron ore prices remain broadly stable y-o-y

China’s iron ore imports reached 210.02 million tonnes (mnt) in January-February 2026, marking a 10% y-o-y increase compared with 191.36 mnt in January-February 2025, according to customs data. The rise was mainly supported by stronger shipments from key supplier Australia and a modest improvement in domestic steel demand.

China typically releases combined trade data for the first two months to neutralise distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday.

Market sentiment:

Meanwhile, measured trading activity was observed in the seaborne market, with cargo bookings being adjusted by buyers in line with production requirements and prevailing port inventory levels.

Prices in the seaborne iron ore market remained broadly stable during the period. The Fe 62% fines index averaged $104.24/dmt CFR China in January-February 2025, while the benchmark shifted to Fe 61% fines from January 2026, averaging $102.6/dmt CFR China during January-February 2026.

Meanwhile, portside iron ore inventories in China averaged around 162.3 mnt during January-February 2026, compared with 145.1 mnt in January-February 2025, keeping spot buying largely measured during the period.

Key factors influencing imports:

• • Stronger shipments from major miners: Iron ore shipments from Australia to China rose to 135.95 mnt during December 2025-January 2026, compared with 120.05 mnt in December 2024-January 2025, supported by fewer weather disruptions and steady mining operations, which helped sustain cargo flows into China during early 2026. Moreover, Brazilian dispatches also increased by around 6 mnt against 42.23 mnt in the CPLY.

• • Stable blast furnace operations: China’s average daily hot metal output rose about 1.2% y-o-y during January-February, as per data maintained with Mysteel Global, indicating steady blast furnace utilisation and stable iron ore consumption despite mixed signals from the downstream steel demand segments.

Outlook:

China’s iron ore imports are expected to remain around 100-105 mnt/month in the near term, supported by stable steel production and steady seaborne supply. However, high port inventories and mixed steel demand trends may keep procurement cautious and limit sharp increases in imports.