India: Primary mills hike rebar prices by INR 500-1,000/t ($5-11/t) for early-Mar'26

- Tier 1 mills’ inventories drop 10-15% m-o-m in early-Mar

- Supply crunch supports prices but trade slows due to Holi

Indian primary steelmakers increased rebar prices by INR 500-1,000/tonne (t) ($5-11/t) for early-March 2026 dispatches over end-February price tags, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 58,500-59,500/t ($637-648/t) on landed basis.

Trade-level BF-rebar prices (distributor to dealer) rose by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 59,200/t ($644/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 6 March 2026. Buying activity in the BF-rebar segment slowed this week due to festive holidays, with several market participants absent. Buyer interest remained subdued at elevated prices, while shortages of certain sizes persisted across select regions.

Rebar inventories at Tier 1 mills drop by 10-15% m-o-m in early-March, as per sources. Limited supplies and strong demand from the projects segment led to a slight m-o-m drop in inventories.

In the projects segment, prices hovered at around INR 59,000-60,000/t ($642-653/t) FOR basis.

Update on projects:

- NCC Limited bagged an INR 326 crore water division order.

- Ramky Infrastructure Limited secured an INR 1,401 crore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract from Maharashtra Industrial Township Limited for infrastructure development at Dighi Port Industrial Area.

Factors behind market dynamics:

1. IF rebar prices rise m-o-m: IF rebar trade prices rose m-o-m across major Indian markets. Prices fell in the beginning and middle of February, but a sudden spike was witnessed at the end of the month in finished steel and semis prices. Mills secured decent orders at the end of February amid strong demand from the projects segment. Trading activities in the finished steel segment were moderate, supported by higher semis and raw material prices. Inventory days stood at 7-10 days. IF rebar prices rose by INR 900/t ($10/t) m-o-m to INR 50,500/t ($549/t) exw-Mumbai as on 6 March 2026.

In addition, prices have continued to climb higher in the first week of March by INR 1,200-2,900/t ($13-32/t), following the Holi festival, amid strong trade activity. In the near term, prices are likely to remain firm, supported by higher raw material prices.

The BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai stood at INR 8,500-9,000/t ($92-98/t). IF rebars continue to dominate the Indian market with a 65-70% share.

2. Raw material prices show mixed trends w-o-w: Prices of major raw materials used in the BF route showed mixed trends w-o-w. BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index was unchanged w-o-w at INR 5,800/t ($92-98/t) ex-mines. Iron ore prices in Odisha stayed firm, supported by active direct sales and auctions, as improved buying interest emerged ahead of March deliveries and impending EC expiries.

BigMints premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index fell $10/t to $250/t CNF Paradip amid cautious buying and improved supply.

3. Property registrations rise m-o-m: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, rose by 16% m-o-m to 13,029 units in February 2026 as against 11,219 units in January, as per data released by Knight Frank India. Likewise, monthly registrations were up by 13% as against 11,541 units reported in February last year.

Property registrations increased due to strong end-user demand, improving buyer sentiment, and ongoing infrastructure development. A higher share of premium and large-ticket housing transactions also boosted stamp duty collections, indicating sustained strength in the residential real estate market.

Outlook:

Trade-level BF-rebar prices are expected to remain largely stable in the near term. Market participants anticipate an improvement in supplies this month, which may cap further price increases amid slowing demand.