Weekly round-up: Coal market strengthens amid tighter imports and firm domestic demand

• • South African coal prices approached multi-year highs

• • Domestic coal gained after prolonged price stability

Coal market sentiment improved in the week ended 14 February as tighter import availability and firmer export offers supported portside prices, while domestic coal also gained on stronger auction participation. Buyers remained selective but active, adjusting procurement strategies in response to widening import differentials. Sponge and steel-linked segments showed mixed trends, yet overall tone stayed firm, driven by supply-side constraints and cautious restocking across value chains.

Indonesian coal prices rise on export policy uncertainty:

Indian portside prices of Indonesian thermal coal increased w-o-w amid tighter export visibility from Indonesia. As per BigMint’s assessment, 5,000 GAR rose by INR 450/t to INR 7,700/t at Kandla and INR 7,600/t at Vizag. 4,200 GAR increased by INR 400/t to INR 6,000/t and INR 5,900/t respectively, while 3,400 GAR edged up by INR 100/t to INR 4,600/t at Navlakhi. Mid- to higher-grade segments saw stronger gains due to constrained spot availability, while lower grades moved moderately. Regulatory uncertainty around RKAB approvals and DMO compliance led some exporters to moderate shipments, tightening supply. Indonesian weekly benchmarks also firmed, with 5,800 GAR up by $1.26/t, 4,200 GAR by $2.42/t and 3,400 GAR by $0.73/t. In the near term, prices are expected to remain firm, particularly in 4,200-5,000 GAR grades, unless clearer guidance emerges on Indonesia’s export framework.

South African thermal coal prices near peak:

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports rose w-o-w amid tight supply. Exw-Paradip 5,500 NAR increased by INR 300/t to INR 10,000/t, while 4,800 NAR rose INR 400/t to INR 8,600/t. At Vizag, 5,500 NAR gained INR 400/t to INR 9,900/t and 4,800 NAR rose INR 500/t to INR 8,500/t, nearing Jul’24 highs. Export offers exceeded $90/t FOB for 5500 NAR, with freight near $14.40/t. Trades included 13,500 t at INR 9,550/t and multiple 10,000 t parcels at INR 10,200-10,600/t. Total port stocks rose 3% to 13.35 mnt, while sponge iron declined INR 900/t to INR 25,500/t, though sentiment stayed firm.

Domestic coal prices climb on stronger SECL bids:

Domestic non-coking coal prices increased w-o-w after remaining stable for nearly two months. As per BigMint’s assessment, 4,500 GCV rose by INR 50/t to INR 4,850/t, while 5,000 GCV increased by INR 100/t to INR 5,850/t exw Bilaspur. Stronger participation in the 12 February SECL auction highlighted improving buying interest, as consumers preferred domestic coal amid elevated imported coal offers and firmer portside prices.

Met coke prices firm in India:

Indian BF-grade metallurgical coke prices increased w-o-w on firm coal costs and higher import parity. In eastern India, prices rose INR 500/t to INR 34,800/t ex-Jajpur, with offers at INR 35,500-36,000/t, while western India increased INR 100/t to INR 30,400/t ex-Gandhidham. Indonesian BF coke was heard at $270-275/t CFR India, supporting domestic prices. Foundry-grade coke remained stable at INR 36,100/t ex-Rajkot. SAIL-Bhilai sold 2,990 t pig iron at INR 37,400/t, up INR 550/t. Overall, prices stayed firm, though cautious steel demand limited stronger gains.

Freight surge lifts petcoke prices:

Global petcoke prices firmed in mid-February as Indian CFR levels consolidated at $122-125/t for 6.5% sulphur material. US Gulf freight surged to $52-56/t, pushing replacement costs higher and lifting landed values. FOB USGC stood at $82-83/t for 4.5%, $79-85/t for 5.5%, and $76-77/t for 6.5%. Saudi offers were $121-124/t CFR India. Turkiye traded 5.5% at $108-115/t CIF, Brazil 6.5% at $105-108/t. India remained the premium outlet, $12-15 above Mediterranean markets. Firm freight and steady cement demand kept sentiment disciplined and replacement-cost driven.

US high-CV coal repriced sharply:

US high-CV non-coking coal prices on India’s west coast rose sharply as petcoke surged and Kandla stocks fell. BigMint’s assessed Portside US thermal coal prices at Kandla climbed up by INR 550/t w-o-w to INR 11,750/t exw. For Tuna port prices moved from INR 12,200-12,400/t to INR 13,500-13,800/t ex-port. Stocks dropped from over 2,07,000 t to about 82,000 t, creating a supply gap before 22 February arrivals. Meanwhile, US-origin petcoke was heard at $122-125/t CFR India, with some offers at $138/t. Freight stayed in the low-to-mid $50s/t, tightening replacement economics and supporting coal demand.

Coal freight rates largely muted:

Dry bulk coal freight rates to India showed mixed trends w-o-w. The Baltic Dry Index rose 159 points to 2,095, led by Panamax up 107 points to 1,766 and Supramax up 63 points to 1,165. Australia-Paradip increased $0.4 to $15.5 per dmt, while Richards Bay-Paradip rose $0.2 to $14.4 per dmt. Indonesia-Navlakhi remained at $11 per dmt. Brent eased to $66.91 per bbl and DCE coke futures fell RMB 16.5 to RMB 1,698.50 per t. Overall, firm bunker costs supported rates, but weak enquiries kept fixtures limited.