Weekly round-up: Russian and Chinese billet export offers edge up w-o-w even as Iran supply tightens

• • Southeast Asian billet prices rise on Iran supply gap

• • CIS billet offers rise on higher production costs

Global billet prices were mixed in the week ended 30 January 2026, with Asian exporters continuing to dominate supply despite weak domestic demand, as higher prices helped offset rising production costs. Positive rebar margins in the UAE supported rolling activity and kept near-term sentiment stable.

Meanwhile, Turkish deep-sea scrap markets turned slightly firmer on cost-side pressures. US winter disruptions, a stronger euro, and higher freight lifted breakeven levels, with HMS 80:20 at $380-382/t CFR. However, weak rebar demand and tight mill margins kept Turkish buyers cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see approach amid firm scrap offers.

Asian market:

Imported billet prices in Southeast Asia rose by $6-10/t since late December to $455-470/t CFR, while Chinese export prices increased to $440-445/t FOB, driven by a temporary decline in Iranian supply amid political uncertainty. Iranian volumes, averaging nearly 200,000-220,000 t per month last year, are being largely replaced by Chinese material, given Asia’s total import demand of around 1 mnt per month.

Chinese exporters remain highly active as weak domestic demand and seasonal factors keep export availability ample. Any construction-led improvement in MarchApril is expected to be short-lived due to ongoing property-sector weakness, with export licensing unlikely to materially restrict shipments.

Regionally, Chinese 3sp billet offers into Taiwan eased to about $460/t CFR, while around 100,000 t of Russian billet reportedly traded earlier. In China, domestic billet prices stayed flat w-o-w at RMB 2,940/t ($423/t), while SHFE rebar futures rose RMB 20/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,112/t ($448/t), supported by higher raw material costs despite muted spot demand.

CIS & Black Sea market:

Imported billet prices in Turkiye edged up by around $5/t m-o-m to $460-465/t CFR, while domestic semis declined by $10/t to $500-510/t exw, reflecting persistent margin pressure and intense competition. Ample billet supply from Asia and the CIS, amid weak demand in exporting regions, continues to weigh on the market. Elevated scrap prices have kept imported billet economically viable, with a minimal cost gap versus scrap-based rebar production, supporting steady import interest.

However, long product demand remains subdued due to high borrowing costs, a challenging macro backdrop, and seasonal construction slowdown. Any seasonal pickup in March-April is expected to be limited and short-lived.

In the Black Sea, export activity remained thin, though active sellers pushed offers higher on rising production and logistics costs. Russian billet offers for March were heard at $448-450/t FOB, up from $442-445/t FOB w-o-w. Turkish buying interest stayed limited, with negotiations near $440/t FOB. Based on recent deals, the CIS billet assessment was raised by $2/t to $440/t FOB Black Sea.

Middle East market:

Billet prices in the Persian Gulf firmed in January, but market stability is being tested by higher-priced Asian imports and uncertainty around Iranian supply. Chinese billet offers were assessed at $480-485/t CFR, with Indonesian material at $475-480/t CFR Jeddah, while limited regional supply kept Saudi semi-finished offers at $490-495/t exw, despite isolated deals near $475/t CFR.

In Saudi Arabia, the rebar market turned firmer in February after Hadeed raised official offers by SAR 70/t ($19/t) m-o-m to SAR 2,260/t ($603/t) delivered, supported by improving demand and firm scrap and billet costs. January trades were largely concluded at SAR 2,140-2,145/t ($571-572/t), with smaller mills offering discounts, while wire rod prices were also lifted by SAR 20/t ($5/t) m-o-m.

Meanwhile, the UAE rebar market remains cautious, with most mills rolling over January levels at AED 2,350-2,365/t ($640-644/t) CPT UAE amid higher domestic availability, the approach of Ramadan, and continued Saudi supply. The UAE HRC market stayed unsettled, with offers at $520-550/t CFR, while workable levels were seen closer to $495-505/t CFR due to buyer resistance.

Iran: Billet export prices were heard at $405-410/t FOB, down $6-8/t w-o-w, with trading activity remaining limited amid geopolitical tensions, internet disruptions, currency weakness, and broader economic uncertainty. Supply-side uncertainty continues to keep the market in a wait-and-see mode, and while the unified exchange rate has improved export economics, any trade resumption may be followed by price corrections.

Despite near-term disruptions, as per industry reports, Iran’s steel exports rose sharply in the first nine months of the Persian year (21 Mar- 21 Dec 2025). Semi-finished exports increased 39% y-o-y to nearly 6.1 mnt, led by billet and bloom, up 38% to 4.6 mnt, and slabs, up 45% to 1.5 mnt. Finished steel exports grew 18% to over 3.3 mnt, though long products fell 8% y-o-y to nearly 2.3 mnt.