Indian HRC export offers remain absent amid higher domestic realisations

• • If mills take further hikes exports may be affected

• • EU optimism holds despite weak trade sentiment

BigMint’s Indian HRC export offers remained absent amid higher domestic realisations. In the Middle East (ME) Chinese prices remained competitive, while no firm offers from India were heard. “Offerings are currently on hold due to rising domestic prices in India, an ME-based source informed BigMint. Meanwhile, indicative offers were heard for Europe (EU), but no firm offers and trade activities were concluded. “There has been no business activity with Europe over the last few weeks,” a domestic mill official informed.

1. HRC offers to the EU: Indian mills are not actively offering to the EU. However, an indicative offer was heard at around $565-570/t CFR Antwerp, up by $10-15/t w-o-w from $555/t the previous week. Overall, sentiment in the European domestic market remained cautiously optimistic, supported by uncertainty surrounding imports following the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Furthermore, ArcelorMittal, a leading European steelmaker, has raised its HRC prices by around EUR 30/t ($35/t) m-o-m to EUR 700/t ($819/t) base delivered for April deliveries. Moreover, CRC and HDGI prices were also increased to EUR 830/t ($971/t) and EUR 820/t ($959/t) respectively, driven primarily by trade regulations such as CBAM and anti-dumping regulations, even as overall demand remained weak.

2. HRC offers to the Middle East: Chinese HRC export offers to the ME remained steady w-o-w at around $500/t CFR UAE, in line with the largely stable May 2026 HRC contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), assessed at around RMB 3,293/t ($473/t) on 27 January. While, last heard Indian HRC export offers to the ME stood at around $500/t CFR UAE.

Outlook:

The Indian HRC export market is expected to witness mixed price movements in the coming week as mills navigate a complex global landscape. While competitive Chinese offers continue to pressure international markets, the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays in China are likely to provide a temporary reprieve, offering Indian exporters a strategic window of opportunity.

However, with primary mills anticipated to announce further price hikes in the next month, the focus is increasingly shifting toward the domestic market. Driven by higher realisations, Indian steelmakers may prioritise domestic sales over exports in the near term.