BigMint's India steel index climbs w-o-w as primary mills raise rebar prices

- Primary mills hike TMT prices by up to INR 2,500/t

- HRC trade prices inch up slightly amid declining inventory

- Secondary steel prices witness uptrend across major markets

Morning Brief: BigMint’s flagship India steel composite index edged up by 1.7% w-o-w, as last assessed on 16 January 2026, at a faster pace compared with the previous week. The longs composite index posted a gain of 2.5% w-o-w compared with 0.6% for flats.

Seasonal demand momentum and depleting inventory pushed the primary mills to hike long steel prices. In comparison, the flat steel market was relatively stable.

Highlights of price movements:

Mills raise BF rebar prices: The primary mills increased rebar prices by up to INR 2,500/tonne (t) ($28/t) for mid-January deliveries. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 54,000-55,000/t ($594-605/t) on landed basis. Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices (distributor to dealer) rose w-o-w across major Indian markets. The distribution channel experienced limited material availability for some sizes, as highlighted by market participants.

Inventories at primary mills have declined by 10-12% in mid-January from earlier in the month. Strong lifting of material in the projects segment and the distribution network led to inventory reduction at mill yards. Meanwhile, some steelmakers are booked out for the coming days, as per sources.

IF-route rebar trade prices increased w-o-w across major Indian markets, supported by moderately strong trading activity and improved mill order bookings. The price rise was further backed by higher raw material costs, particularly sponge iron and billets. However, trading slowed toward mid-week as markets in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Hyderabad remained closed due to regional festivities, including Makar Sankranti and Pongal.

HRC market stable amid inventory drawdown: Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) in India showed mixed-trends w-o-w with prices in range of INR 49,500-51,600/t ($549-572/t) in key regions. However, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices showed an uptick w-o-w, ranging between INR 54,000-59,500 ($598-659/t).

BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) increased by INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 51,700/t ($573/t) on 13 January. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices inched up by INR 300/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 57,300/t ($635/t) on 13 January against INR 57,000/t ($632/t) last week. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

HRC prices firmed up in the west while a decline was noted in north India. However, limited buying enquiries with distributors in north India indicated that demand softness was partly attributable to festival holidays and an extended weekend, which dampened market activity. Sellers with constrained liquidity turned increasingly impatient amid slow offtake.

Sources informed that it may take at least a week for stocks to be absorbed before fresh requirements emerge. This is why expectations of a price hike by the mills were belied despite a parallel hike in the longs segment.

Outlook:

Steel prices will remain in positive territory on seasonal push and fast inventory drawdown. However, export market sentiments are bound to weigh on domestic flat steel prices. The momentum in the longs market, meanwhile, is expected to continue.