Weekly round-up: Asian billet offers edge higher; holiday lull tempers activity in CIS and GCC

• • GCC billet prices capped by ample Asian supply

• • Iran billet FOB may ease despite higher local prices

Global billet markets showed a mixed trend in the week ended 02 January 2026, as buying interest remained muted across the CIS and GCC amid year-end holiday slowdowns.

Asian export billet offers edged higher, supported by sustained export momentum rather than any meaningful supply-side tightening.

In Turkiye, deep-sea imported scrap prices remained largely stable, with US-origin HMS 80:20 consistently defended around $370/t CFR, reflecting tight availability and elevated seasonal collection costs. Despite reduced activity during the holiday period, a few cargoes were booked for late January-early February shipment.

Around 3-4 deals were concluded in the $361-369/t CFR range, while the scrap-to-rebar spread narrowed to $195-200/t, with Turkish rebar prices holding steady at around $560/t FOB.

China unlikely to cut billet exports despite new government measures

Chinese semi-finished export activity is unlikely to ease in the near term. Despite steel output controls, mills continue to face weak domestic demand for finished steel amid the winter construction slowdown, slowing economic growth, stress in the real estate sector, and a lack of effective new stimulus.

In mid-December, China’s Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced plans to introduce export licensing for a wide range of steel products, including semi-finished and finished steel, effective from 1 January 2026. The stated objective is to curb excessive competition and improve exporter margins.

Larger producers are likely to secure licences and expand shipments, potentially offsetting any reduction from smaller exporters unable to comply. In addition, market participants do not rule out attempts to bypass the new system, a practice historically observed in Chinas export market.

Prices for imported billets in Southeast Asia rose by around $3-5/t m-o-m to $450-455/t CFR, depending on buyer profile and shipment size.

Over the same period, Chinese export billet prices increased by $5/t m-o-m to $435/t FOB amid a sustained export momentum rather than any meaningful supply restraint.

CIS billet export market:

CIS billet export activity slowed sharply this week as sellers from the Black Sea basin largely stepped back ahead of the New Year holidays. Market participants expect normal trading to resume only from the second week of January, although some anticipate modest price firming amid rising scrap costs.

Russian billet offers for early February shipment were heard at $440-442/t FOB Black Sea, down just $1-2/t w-o-w. Some mills have already exhausted their export allocations, limiting available volumes and supporting talk of a potential $3-5/t price increase.

In Turkiye, Russian billet was booked at $460-465/t CFR ($440445/t FOB), compared with $458-460/t CFR a week earlier.

GCC billet market:

Billet prices in the Persian Gulf remained under pressure in December as trading activity slowed, with most re-rollers having already covered near-term requirements. Chinese billet offers edged down by $5/t m-o-m to $455-460/t CFR, while recent regional deals were concluded at $480-485/t CFR/CPT.

In Saudi Arabia, domestic semi-finished prices stood at $480-485/t exw, while fresh Chinese offers at around $470/t CFR were heard slightly above buyers workable levels.

Iranian billet exports remain uncertain following recent changes to currency mechanisms, with most suppliers holding back from issuing fresh offers. Domestic billet prices have risen by around 18,000-20,000 rials/kg ($43-48/t) w-o-w, allowing mills to absorb lower dollar-denominated export prices while still preserving margins in local currency terms. Last week, export offers were heard at $412-415/t FOB BIK, but we may gradually see workable levels easing toward $395-400/t FOB in the coming weeks. As noted earlier, the ongoing currency crisis continues to distort pricing across most commodity markets in Iran.

Iran is expected to increase square billet shipments to Asian markets during January-March following the introduction of a new foreign exchange settlement mechanism. The system allows exporters to repatriate proceeds via a combination of official and negotiated exchange rates, reducing currency risk and improving cash-flow visibility.

Average import billet prices in the GCC fell to $435-438/t CFR for Iran-origin material in December, down from $444-445/t CFR in November.