Global steel output falls nearly 5% in Nov’25 on Chinese production cuts; industry braces for slow 2026 recovery

• • Chinese output in Nov falls around 11% y-o-y to 69.9 mnt

• • Production rises in India, Turkiye, and Iran on strong infra spending

• • Modest recovery expected in 2026, steel demand may grow by 1.3%

Morning Brief: Global crude steel production fell through the first 11 months to November 2025 as weaker Chinese demand, tighter margins and policy controls drove mills to scale back. The downturn highlighted how structural shifts in the world’s largest steel market shaped global supply and prices.

World Steel Association data showed that crude steel output among 70 reporting countries dropped to 140.1 million tonnes (mnt) in November, down 4.6% from a year earlier. The report also showed broad softness through mid-2025, with sharper falls emerging in the final quarter.

Across January to November, most regions produced less steel than a year earlier, while a handful, including North America and the Middle East, raised output modestly. Asia and Oceania, dominated by China, cut production by 7.1% in November, while the European Union lowered output by 3.5% and Russia and the CIS cut by 3.9%. Meanwhile, India, Turkiye and Iran bucked the trend and raised production.

Export dynamics reinforced the downcycle. Chinese mills pushed more finished steel abroad when domestic buyers hesitated, which pressured global prices and encouraged rival producers to stay cautious. The result was a world market that felt oversupplied even as total output slipped.

Production trends in top countries in 11MCY’25:

Through the first 11 months, China reduced crude steel output as mills responded to weaker demand, narrowing margins and policy guidance on capacity discipline. November production fell 10.9% y-o-y to 69.9 mnt, reinforcing the trend. Weaker momentum in the property sector and only partial offset from engineering goods, shipbuilding, appliances and new-energy vehicles continued to weigh on consumption.

India remained the standout growth market. Output increased strongly over the period, supported by new blast-furnace capacity, expansion in the induction-furnace sector and broad infrastructure spending. Government programmes on housing and transport, alongside capacity additions by primary producers and sustained utilisation boosted steel output. Provisional import safeguards introduced earlier in the year helped the integrated mills defend market share and stabilise pricing conditions.

Japan’s production trended lower over the 11 months as domestic and export demand softened. The Japan Iron and Steel Federation reported slower output from both blast-furnace and electric-furnace producers. Stronger Chinese export flows into Asia compressed margins and dampened export orders, reinforcing the slowdown.

Crude steel output in the United States rose modestly. Import tariffs supported domestic utilisation, while consolidation and strategic capital investments lifted sentiment. Producers positioned themselves to capture incentives under industrial and decarbonisation policies. Analysts nonetheless caution that tariff uncertainty and inflation pressures risk restraining downstream demand into 2026.

South Korean production declined as mature-market demand softened and producers faced rising cost pressures. Exports came under pressure from US trade measures, softer global markets and elevated Chinese shipments, reducing operating flexibility.

Turkiye recorded marginal growth during the review period. Higher energy costs, competitive pressure from Chinese billet, and trade uncertainty constrained output, although sentiment improved later on firmer export prospects to Middle Eastern buyers.

Crude steel output in Russia fell as lower global prices, weaker exports and currency appreciation reduced competitiveness. Domestic demand from construction and energy projects softened, and sanctions continued to weigh on logistics and financing conditions.

Producers in the European Union operated in a weak environment. Manufacturing activity remained subdued, energy costs stayed elevated, and the threat of higher import penetration persisted despite safeguard measures. Germany was particularly exposed as mills absorbed energy-transition costs while attempting to maintain utilisation.

Outlook – moderate recovery expected in 2026:

Looking ahead to 2026, BigMint expects global steel production to rise modestly as demand stabilises and activity picks up in key markets, raising demand for 2026 by 1.3%, driven by stronger consumption outside China on the back of rising infrastructure spending, especially in India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Market analysts also signal that fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment in the EU and the United States should prop up demand next year. A European steel association forecast indicated apparent consumption could grow about 3% in 2026, conditional on easing industrial headwinds and lower inflation.

On the supply side, we expect tighter controls and environmental rules in China to continue to curb unplanned output surges, while capacity expansion in emerging markets will support incremental growth. Market participants maintain a neutral outlook for the steel market in 2026, pointing to low-single-digit growth in global production as protectionist policies bolster domestic utilisation.

However, risks persist. Trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and uneven manufacturing rebounds could slow recovery momentum. Japan’s steel lobby has cautioned that China’s planned export licensing regime, to come into effect in 2026, may not significantly cut excess shipments or boost global prices, potentially keeping margins under pressure.