Weekly round-up: Asian, CIS and Iranian billet markets soften as year-end slowdown sets in

• • Power curbs add supply-side uncertainty in Iran

• • CIS billet exporters step back ahead of holidays

Global billet markets softened in the week ended 26 December 2025, as buying interest remained subdued across Asia and the CIS during the year-end holidays. Asian export billet trade stayed quiet, while CIS offers were largely unworkable against lower-priced Chinese and Iranian material, restricting deal flow and keeping sentiment cautious.

In Turkiye, deep-sea imported scrap prices remained broadly stable. US-origin HMS 80:20 remained at around $370/t CFR, underpinned by tight availability and higher seasonal collection costs. Limited late January-early February bookings kept prices steady despite slower activity, with three-four deals concluded at $361-369/t CFR. The scrap-to-rebar spread narrowed to $195200/t as FOB rebar prices hovered near $560/t.

Holiday lull descends on CIS export market:

CIS billet export activity slowed further this week as Black Sea sellers reduced their presence ahead of the New Year holidays. Market participants expect normal trading to resume only from the second week of January. Despite muted activity, some market participants expect a modest price uptick, driven by rising scrap costs and limited unsold volumes.

Russian billet offers for early February shipment were heard at $436-440/t FOB Black Sea, down just $2/t w-o-w. Several mills have already exhausted export allocations, prompting expectations of a $4-5/t price increase. Small parcels of balanced semis (12,000-15,000 t) were offered at $438-440/t FOB for quick sale.

In Turkiye, Russian billet was booked at $460-465/t CFR ($440-445/t FOB), slightly higher than last week, followed by firmer scrap prices. Egypt remained absent, with CIS offers deemed unworkable against lower-priced Chinese and Iranian material.

Asian export market subdued amid holidays:

Asian billet export offers remained largely stable, but trading activity stayed muted amid the year-end holiday slowdown. Chinese 3sp billet was quoted at $435-440/t FOB for February shipment, slightly firmer than $435/t FOB last week, mainly due to currency movements rather than any improvement in underlying demand. Market participants reported minimal buying interest, with most customers inactive during the holiday period.

Indonesian Dexin Steel held base-grade billet offers at $440/t FOB for April shipment, unchanged w-o-w, while workable levels were assessed near $437-438/t FOB.

In the CFR market, Chinese 3sp billet offers to Thailand were heard from $450/t CFR, with bids around $442-444/t CFR. Demand in key destinations such as the Philippines and Indonesia remained weak, constrained by slow rebar sales and previously covered requirements.

On the domestic front, Chinese billet prices softened by RMB 10/t w-o-w to RMB 2,940/t ($420/t), while SHFE rebar ended marginally higher at RMB 3,078/t ($439/t), pointing to a range-bound but weak market. Overall sentiment stayed cautious into year-end, with mills maintaining controlled output and a wait-and-watch approach.

Iranian semi-finished steel market:

Iran’s billet export prices remained stable this week, though trading activity was muted due to weak demand and growing concerns over power supply disruptions. Mills continued to offer billet at $412-418/t FOB, unchanged w-o-w, while limited trader-led offers were heard lower at $390-395/t FOB. Major buyers were bidding around $10/t below prevailing offers with subdued buying interest.

A major Iranian steel producer has yet to finalise its mid-February billet tender, with market sources indicating a target price of at least $415/t FOB. In contrast, the slab segment has seen relatively better traction, with around 30,000 t sold for the same shipment period to Southeast Asia.

Market sentiment has turned cautious following stricter power curbs. From 22 December, industrial users have been instructed to cut electricity consumption by 40% due to cold weather and fuel shortages. These measures are expected to limit steel output, particularly at EAF mills, while integrated producers with captive power are likely to face a lower near-term impact.