India: ECL auction sees buyer concentration deepen as mid-CV demand dominates allocations

• • Buyers focused mainly on G4 grades, indicating preference for mid-CV coal

• • Limited uptake despite large offering highlighted selective demand conditions

Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL) concluded its non-coking coal auction on 16 December 2025, offering 1,019,700 t across Grades G3, G4, G5, G6, G12 and G13, of which 171,700 t was sold, reflecting selective buying and concentrated demand for mid-CV grades. The auction reflected a clear shift in buyer behaviour, with procurement highly concentrated among a few large consumers and traders, and a strong preference for mid-CV G4 material, particularly from underground sources. Overall price realisation averaged INR 5,015/t, supported by aggressive bidding for select UG parcels, while low-CV grades cleared at relatively modest levels. This marked the highest auctioned volume since 12 November 2024, when 188,800 t was sold, including 169,800 t of G4 coal.

Grade-wise outcome:

G4 alone accounted for over 50% of total allocations, underscoring sustained demand for mid-CV coal suited to sponge iron, alloy and industrial users. In contrast, G13 volumes were large but cleared at significantly lower price levels, reflecting utility-linked buying and price sensitivity in lower CV segments.

Mine mix highlights: UG premiums remain decisive:

A notable feature of the auction was the dominance of underground (UG) mines within G4, which continued to attract materially higher bids than open-cast (OC) equivalents.

• • Sonepur Bazari OC supplied the bulk of OC G4 at INR 4,479/t.

• • UG parcels from Bansra, Chora (multiple pits), Ningha, Bahula, Parbelia and Bhanora cleared in a wide range of INR 5,200-7,545/t, reaffirming the premium attached to cleaner, lower-ash UG coal.

• • The highest G4 realisation came from Parbelia UG at INR 7,545/t, highlighting continued scarcity value for select UG output.

Buyer behaviour: concentration and selective aggression:

Two distinct buying patterns emerged clearly:

Large captive demand at lower CV: Adani Power Limited dominated the auction by lifting 75,000 t of G13 at INR 1,713/t, accounting for nearly the entire G13 allocation. This points to stable base-load utility demand, focused on volume security rather than premium CV.

Fragmented but aggressive mid-CV buying: The G4 segment saw wide participation from traders, alloy producers and sponge-linked buyers, each lifting relatively smaller parcels but bidding aggressively for UG-origin coal. Buyers such as Saroj Commodities, Khemka Minerals, Super Smelters and Rishaan Minerals paid clear premiums, signalling confidence in near-term industrial offtake despite weak spot sentiment elsewhere.

Market interpretation: what the buyers are signaling:

The auction outcome reinforces several underlying market signals seen over recent weeks:

• • Buyers are prioritising grade quality over volume, especially in G4, even as domestic coal prices soften elsewhere.

• • Utility-linked buyers remain active but strictly price-disciplined, anchoring lower-CV clears.

• • Industrial and trading buyers are more selective, concentrating on UG-origin mid-CV coal that offers operational and blending advantages over imported alternatives.

• • This divergence explains why overall auction volumes remained moderate, yet price dispersion widened sharply across grades and mines.

Outlook:

Buyer behaviour in this auction suggests that domestic coal demand is not uniformly weak, but highly segmented. While lower CV material continues to face pricing pressure, mid-CV UG coal remains structurally tight, supported by consistent interest from industrial consumers seeking reliable quality amid volatile imported coal markets. Future ECL auctions are likely to continue showing sharp contrasts between volume-driven utility buying and premium-focused industrial procurement.