China: Met coke prices remain stable as downside pressures build

• • Chinese steel mills resist further met coke price hikes, weakening bullish sentiment

• • Met coke prices face downside pressure amid weak steel demand, falling steel prices

Mysteel Global: Hopes for a further uptick in Chinese metallurgical coke prices faded on 13 July, as demand and market sentiment soured amid slowing operations at domestic steelmakers. Market participants expect downside pressure to increase for the coke market, as steel mills try to reduce raw material costs amid widening profit losses.

On Monday, the Mysteel Coke Index (MCI) CDQ, which tracks China’s national dry-quenched quasi-first-grade met coke prices, remained unchanged from the last session at RMB 2,000.3/tonne ($295/t), while the MCI CWQ for wet-quenched quasi-first-grade met coke edged up by RMB 1.3/t to RMB 1,839.2/t, both including VAT.

Their lengthy negotiations over the tenth bout of coke price hikes with mills — which lasted for one week — prompted most coke producers to keep stable offers yesterday. On Monday, prevalent offers for Lvliang dry-quenched quasi-first-grade and first-grade met coke in North China’s Shanxi province stood flat at RMB 1,960-1,970/t and RMB 2,070-2,080/t, EXW with VAT. However, some coke firms in Southwest China’s Yunnan and Guizhou raised their offers for various met coke products by RMB 50/t the same day, in line with their ten-day pricing cycle.

Sources indicate that the latest met coke price hikes proposed by major producers on 3 July have largely failed to gain traction, facing firm resistance from leading steelmakers. Downside pressure is now building, with steel mills poised to push for price reductions for this steelmaking raw material.

Tepid end-user demand and speculative buying continued to weigh on coke transactions yesterday, highlighting persistent pressure from a softening steel market. Although the actual decline in hot metal production remains limited in the near term, widening losses at steelmakers are prompting stronger cost-control efforts, Mysteel Global noted.

Domestic steel prices continued fluctuating lower as growing bearish sentiment and adverse weather conditions capped steel demand. On Monday, Mysteel’s assessment for the price of Q235 square billet in North China’s Tangshan city shed another RMB 20/t from last Friday to RMB 2,950/t on Monday, EXW with VAT.

The sentiment in the coke derivatives market was also sluggish, mirroring the worsening prospect for the spot market ahead. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-active September coke contract closed Monday’s daytime trading session 2.51% lower at Yuan 1,865/t.

The weaker sentiment immediately weighed down portside met coke prices. Mysteel assessed wet-quenched quasi-first-grade coke (CSR 60%) and first-grade coke (CSR 65%) at Yuan 1,690/t and Yuan 1,790/t ex-stock Rizhao port, respectively, on Monday, both losing Yuan 30/t from the last session and including VAT. The price of dry-quenched quasi-first-grade coke dropped Yuan 20/t to Yuan 1,930/t.

Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.