India’s steel production remains stable in June, exports register strong growth

• • India remains net importer of finished steel

• • Domestic steel consumption moderates after May recovery

India’s crude steel production remained largely stable in June 2026, standing at 14.06 million tonnes (mnt), according to provisional data released by the Joint Plant Committee (JPC) under the Ministry of Steel. Output was broadly unchanged compared to May, while registering a 3.9% y-o-y increase, reflecting steady production despite the seasonal slowdown.

India continued to remain anet importer of finished steelin June, with imports at0.696mnt, exceeding exports of0.616mnt.

Steel industry highlights in June:

Steel productionremainsstable; consumption moderates:

India’s crude steel production remained almost flat in June, while finished steel production declined marginally by 0.5% m-o-m to 13.758 mnt from 13.827 mnt in May. On a y-o-y basis, finished steel production increased 6%, indicating that domestic mills continued to operate at healthy production levels despite the onset of the monsoon.

Finished steel consumption eased by1.3% m-o-mto14.186mntfrom14.365mntin May. However, consumptionremained7.2% higher y-o-y, supported by ongoing infrastructure spending, manufacturing activity, and construction demand. The sequential declinelargely reflectedseasonal buying moderation and slower project execution during the early monsoon period.

Finished steel exports rise further:

India’s finished steel exports increased 21.3% m-o-m to 0.616 mnt in June. Compared with June 2025, exports rose 38.1%, supported by improved overseas demand and better execution of export orders.

India’s HRC exports increased significantly during the month, primarily driven by a sharp rise in shipments to Vietnam, where exports surged to around 0.12 mnt from 0.03 mnt in May. Stronger manufacturing activity in Vietnam, supported by global supply chain diversification away from China, boosted demand for imported steel. Indian HRC also remained competitively priced in the region, while growing trade restrictions on Chinese steel in several markets created additional opportunities for Indian exporters. At the same time, subdued domestic demand encouraged Indian steelmakers to divert more volumes to overseas markets. Although exports to the EU remained constrained due to exhausted safeguard quotas and uncertainty surrounding the revised quota regime, robust demand from Southeast Asia helped lift India’s overall HRC exports by 71% y-o-y in June.

Finished steel importsremainelevated:

Finished steel imports increased marginally by1% m-o-mto0.696mnt, while recording a sharp58.2% y-o-yrise. Imports continued to exceed exports, keeping India a net importer of finished steel for another month.

The sustained inflow of imported steel was supported by competitively priced cargoes booked earlier and continued arrivals under long-term contractual arrangements. Demand from export-oriented downstream manufacturers, particularly pipe and tube producers, also contributed to healthy import volumes.

However, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies’ (DGTR) anti-dumping investigation into HRC imports from China, Japan, and Russia is expected to reshape India’s import market in the coming months. The initiation of the probe, along with the possibility of retrospective anti-dumping duties sought by domestic steelmakers, has made importers increasingly cautious about placing fresh orders. This comes at a time when imported HRC is already significantly more expensive than domestic material due to the existing 11.5% safeguard duty and higher landed costs, reducing the commercial attractiveness of imported steel. As a result, import activity is likely to remain subdued, with purchases largely confined to cargoes imported under the Advance Authorisation Scheme for export-oriented manufacturers unless the price gap between imported and domestic HRC narrows considerably.

April-June FY’27 performance:

During April-June FY’27, India’s crude steel production stood at 42.060 mnt, up 3% from 40.838 mnt in the corresponding period last year. Finished steel production increased 6% to 40.994 mnt, while finished steel consumption rose 8.3% to 41.569 mnt.

Finished steel exports climbed31.3%to1.593mnt,whereasimports surged49.1%to2.064mnt,indicatingthat India continued to rely on overseas supplies despite healthy growth in domestic production.

Outlook:

India’s steel market is expected to maintain stable production levels in the coming months as major steelmakers continue operating at normal capacities. However, the monsoon season may keep domestic demand largely need-based, resulting in moderate consumption during the near term.

On the trade front, HRC imports are expected to remain under pressure as importers adopt a cautious stance following the DGTR’s anti-dumping investigation and the higher landed cost of imported material. Fresh bookings are likely to remain limited unless the price differential between imported and domestic HRC narrows substantially. Meanwhile, exports are expected to remain supported by stronger demand from Southeast Asia, improved shipping conditions, and competitive pricing, although developments in global trade policies and safeguard measures in key export markets will continue to influence shipment volumes. Overall, the trade environment is expected to remain dynamic, with elevated imports and policy developments shaping domestic steel prices and market competitiveness.