Asian stainless steel market weakens amid potential increase in nickel ore supply, tighter EU import quotas
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- SHFE nickel contract for Sep’26 declines nearly 4% w-o-w
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- EU cuts duty-free quota for cold-rolled stainless steel by 47%
SteelDaily: The Asian stainless steel market remained under pressure in early July as concerns over a potential increase in Indonesia’s nickel ore production quotas (RKAB) and the European Union’s tighter import quota regime weighed on market sentiment. The possibility of higher nickel ore availability has raised expectations of lower raw material prices, while reduced EU import quotas are likely to intensify export competition across Asia.
Market participants are closely monitoring Indonesia’s ongoing RKAB revision process in July, which may allow miners to secure additional production quotas. Although no official approval volumes have been announced, expectations of increased ore supply have already pressured nickel prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September nickel contract declined nearly 4% to RMB 125,580/t on 1 July from the previous week.
The weakness in nickel also impacted stainless steel prices in China. Domestic 304-grade cold-rolled stainless steel prices eased to RMB 15,000-15,050/t, while 430-grade cold-rolled prices slipped to RMB 7,300-7,750/t, reflecting subdued demand and cautious buying sentiment.
Meanwhile, the European Union’s revised steel safeguard quotas, effective from 1 July 2026, have further clouded the export outlook. The EU reduced its duty-free quota for cold-rolled stainless steel by around 47% to 496,342 t, while quotas for hot-rolled stainless steel and stainless steel plate were cut by around 65% and 62%, respectively. Country-specific allocations also changed significantly, with Taiwan’s cold-rolled quota reduced by 71%, while China, India, and Vietnam received new country-specific quotas.
The tighter EU quota regime is expected to redirect Asian export volumes to alternative markets, increasing pricing competition across the region. Reflecting the softer market, Chinese export offers for 304-grade cold-rolled stainless steel declined by $20/t w-o-w to $2,250-2,320/t FOB, while 304-grade hot-rolled coil offers fell to $2,180-2,250/t FOB.
Although Indonesian exporters have largely maintained their offer prices, buyers across Asia continue to adopt a wait-and-watch approach amid expectations of further price corrections driven by weak demand and uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s nickel supply policy.
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