India: PELLEX remains stable as buyers wait for NMDC’s ore price revision

• • Sellers keep offers firm after receiving healthy bookings in previous weeks

• • Lack of supply from Odisha, limited offers support prices despite slow trade

PELLEX, BigMint’s bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index for Raipur, remained stable at INR 9,100/t ($96/t) DAP on 30 June against 26 June.

Pellet prices in the Raipur market remained largely stable at the end of June, with trading activity slowing over the past few days as most consumers continued to lift material booked earlier at lower prices. Market participants said the absence of significant fresh transactions reflected cautious buying sentiment rather than any improvement in demand fundamentals.

Rationale:

• • PELLEX has been derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids. To download the detailed methodology, click here.

• • No deal was recorded in this publishing window, and thus, this category was not taken for calculation. Thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.

• • Thirteen (13) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard, and eleven (11) were taken for price calculation and given the balance 50% weightage.

Price movements and offers:

Pellet makers in Raipur kept offers stable for the Fe 62.5/63% (0.5%) grade at INR 8,900-9,000/t ($94-95/t) exw. Meanwhile, no pellet trades were recorded in this publishing window amid cautious buying behaviour in the Raipur market.

Market scenario:

According to sources, steelmakers had secured sufficient pellet volumes during the recent price correction and are currently using those inventories. A participant commented, “Most buyers booked material over the last two weeks when prices softened. At present, they are executing dispatches according to earlier contracts instead of entering into fresh deals.”

Pellet producers have largely maintained their offer prices despite the subdued spot market. However, only a limited number of suppliers are actively accepting fresh orders after reporting healthy sales during the previous fortnight. A steelmaker stated, “Sellers are not under immediate pressure to reduce offers as they have already sold strong volumes recently. Most are waiting for greater clarity before revising prices.”

Additionally, one Raipur-based pellet producer is expected to undertake a scheduled maintenance shutdown during the first half of July. While the shutdown is not expected to significantly tighten overall availability, it may temporarily reduce spot supplies in the regional market.

Demand sentiment also remains cautious as several steelmakers are waiting for NMDC’s iron ore price revision for July deliveries. Revised ore prices will provide a clearer indication of pellet production costs and help determine the next purchasing levels. “Most steel producers are delaying fresh procurement until NMDC announces its July prices. That revision will set the direction for pellet negotiations over the coming weeks,” a steelmaker from central India commented.

Meanwhile, a few buyers have accelerated pellet purchases ahead of the monsoon season, anticipating higher moisture content in iron ore lumps, which could affect steelmaking efficiency.

Supplies from Odisha-based pellet producers to Raipur buyers remained largely absent during the period. Market participants attributed this to longer delivery timelines and slightly lower Fe grades compared with locally available Raipur pellets, making regional supplies more competitive.

Key market drivers:

• • Sponge iron prices rise w-o-w: Sponge PDRI prices increased by INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w t0 INR 24,050/t ($254/t) exw Raipur on 30 June. However, prices in Raipur inched down by INR 100/t d-o-d. During the week, procurement inquiries increased compared to the previous week, boosting sellers’ confidence and prompting them to raise offer prices. Trading activity remained robust, but momentum has eased in recent days as several inquiries failed to convert into confirmed deals. Nevertheless, the overall market remained positive, underpinned by sustained demand and improved price realisations.

• • Billet prices increase w-o-w: BigMint’s billet index in Raipur rose by INR 300/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 38,950/t ($411/t) exw on 30 June. Additionally, the index decreased by INR 100/t d-o-d. The week witnessed relatively better activity, with sellers gaining confidence from neighbouring markets where billet prices were raised aggressively on the back of improved sentiment rather than any significant increase in demand. The higher offers in surrounding regions encouraged Raipur-based sellers to revise prices upward.

Outlook:

BigMint expects pellet prices to remain stable this week. However, a further price correction cannot be ruled out after NMDC announces its July iron ore prices, which is expected to occur during the first week of July and will likely determine the market’s next direction.