Weekly round-up: Global billet markets soften as weaker scrap, cautious buying weigh on trade

• • Turkish scrap correction amid weak rebar, billet sentiment

• • Russian exporters lower offers while Iranian production recovery progresses

Global billet markets weakened during the week ended 13 June, as softer scrap prices in Turkiye, sluggish downstream demand across Asia, and cautious buying sentiment pressured trade activity. Suppliers across key exporting regions lowered offers to stimulate sales, while buyers largely delayed purchases in anticipation of further corrections.

The shift in sentiment was led by Turkiye’s scrap market, where lower-priced European cargoes set a weaker tone for the semi-finished steel segment. During the week, an Izmir-based steelmaker booked French-origin HMS 80:20 at $391/t CFR, while another mill secured German-origin material at $392/t CFR. The transactions reinforced expectations that raw material prices may soften further.

A market participant noted, “Levels above $400/t CFR for US-origin HMS 80:20 appear difficult to achieve at present, while buyers believe the market may not have reached the bottom yet.”

Asian export offers decline:

Chinese billet export offers softened amid limited buying interest and weak steel demand across Southeast Asia. Leading mills offered 3sp billet at around $468-470/t FOB for August shipment, compared with $470-480/t FOB a week earlier. Traders reported that many customers had already secured sufficient material and preferred to wait for lower prices before returning to the market.

Domestic Chinese billet prices, however, edged up to RMB 3,040/t ($424/t) from RMB 3,020/t ($421/t) at the start of the week, supported by firmer iron ore and coke prices. SHFE rebar futures remained largely stable at RMB 3,172/t ($442/t), indicating that higher raw material costs continued to offer some support despite weak seasonal demand and rising inventories.

Chinese billet offers to Taiwan were heard at around $490-495/t CFR. Although buyers viewed Chinese material as competitive, most preferred to delay bookings. Russian-origin billet, which had been actively traded in Taiwan in recent weeks, was no longer widely available. Market participants estimated that 30,000-60,000 t of Russian billet had recently changed hands at $490-495/t CFR Taiwan.

In Indonesia, a major steel mill reduced billet offers by $2-3/t to $482-484/t FOB for late-September shipment after failing to secure fresh orders. The move reflected increasingly competitive market conditions across Asia.

Demand conditions in the Philippines remained weak. A local importer noted that construction activity has slowed significantly with the onset of the rainy season, while government budget constraints continue to weigh on steel consumption.

Indian export activity loses momentum:

Indian mills accelerated billet exports during May and early June amid weak domestic long steel demand. However, market participants indicated that export activity has started to slow after a period of active buying. “We are hearing that customers are taking a pause, as markets are weak,” an international steel trader said.

CIS exporters adjust their offers lower:

Russian billet exporters reduced offers during the week as weaker sentiment in Turkiye and slower buying activity weighed on the market. Billet offers were heard at $485-490/t FOB Black Sea, compared with $495-500/t FOB a week earlier.

Market participants reported that traders holding around 20,000 t of Russian billet had struggled to sell cargoes into Turkiye and were exploring alternative destinations. Reflecting weaker conditions, BigMint’s Black Sea billet assessment was reduced by $2/t to $483/t FOB.

Turkish buyers assessed Russian billet at around $500/t CFR, down from $510/t CFR previously. Traders noted that recent lower billet prices announced by Turkish producer Kardemir have significantly reduced buyers’ willingness to accept higher-priced imports.

One trader commented, “Suppliers could try to trade at $510/t CFR, but after Kardemir’s latest pricing, those levels are not attractive for Turkish customers.”

The stronger Russian rouble also continued to challenge export competitiveness. Market sources noted that domestic Russian steel markets remain relatively attractive compared with exports, limiting producers’ flexibility on pricing.

Turkish billet market remains sluggish:

Despite the end of the holidays, trading activity in Turkiye remained slow. Domestic billet offers were heard at $555-565/t exw, up from $540-550/t exw before the holiday period, largely reflecting the delayed pass-through of higher scrap costs and limited supplier presence. However, most market participants questioned the workability of current offer levels. Local mills were reportedly selling only small volumes, estimated at around 5,000 t per week in total.

The imported billet remained largely uncompetitive. Market participants assessed workable import levels near $505-510/t CFR, while Chinese billet offers were reported around $520-525/t CFR, well above buyers’ expectations.

Opinions on market direction remained divided. Some participants expect billet prices to weaken further amid softer scrap trends and weak export demand, while others believe Kardemir’s future pricing decisions could provide support.

Iranian recovery underway:

In Iran, Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) restarted one of its electric arc furnaces following reconstruction work after military strikes disrupted operations earlier this year. The restart marks a significant step in restoring production at the country’s largest steel producer.

However, industry participants cautioned that a full recovery remains some distance away. Earlier assessments suggested that rebuilding damaged steelmaking and direct reduction facilities could take at least a year, depending on the extent of infrastructure repairs required.

Outlook:

Global billet markets are expected to remain under pressure as weak construction demand, seasonal slowdowns, and softer scrap prices continue to weigh on sentiment. While firm iron ore and coke prices offer some support, buyers across Asia and Turkiye are expected to maintain a cautious approach. Market participants will closely monitor Turkish scrap movements, Kardemir’s pricing strategy, and the pace of recovery in Iran, all of which are likely to influence billet trade flows in the coming weeks.