China: HRC remains resilient while rebar comes under pressure in May

Morning Brief:China’s steel market witnessed diverging trends across product segments in May 2026, with HRC prices remaining comparatively resilient while rebar came under pressure from weakening construction demand. Average HRC prices rose to 3,519 yuan/t in May from 3,403 yuan/t in April, while rebar increased to 3,278 yuan/t from 3,171 yuan/t over the same period. Although both products strengthened, the underlying demand picture remained markedly different, with manufacturing-linked sectors continuing to support flat steel consumption while construction activity weakened amid seasonal disruptions and a prolonged property downturn.

The divergence was also reflected in the HRC-rebar spread, which widened to an average of 241 yuan/t in May from 232 yuan/t in April and 109 yuan/t a year earlier. The widening premium suggests that manufacturing demand remains relatively more resilient than construction-related steel consumption despite broader economic uncertainty.

At the same time, rising trade barriers, slowing exports, elevated freight costs, and firm raw material prices are increasingly shaping market sentiment as China’s steel industry navigates a weaker domestic construction environment.

HRC supported by manufacturing demand:

HRC market activity remained comparatively stable during May as manufacturing demand continued to absorb available supply. Demand from machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction equipment, renewable energy projects, automobiles, and industrial upgrading initiatives continued to support flat steel consumption, helping HRC outperform construction-linked steel products.

Average HRC prices increased by 116 yuan/t m-o-m during May, supported by resilient industrial demand and firm production costs. Inventory conditions also remained relatively manageable for flat steel products, with steady procurement from manufacturing end-users helping absorb available supply.

However, buying activity remained cautious. Downstream consumers largely maintained need-based procurement amid uncertain economic conditions and weakening export demand. As a result, HRC prices continued to find support from manufacturing demand, although upside remained constrained by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and weaker overseas markets.

Construction weakness continues to weigh on rebar demand:

Construction activity across southern China was affected by an earlier-than-usual rainy season, with prolonged rainfall disrupting project execution and slowing procurement activity. Contractors increasingly shifted towards hand-to-mouth purchasing, reducing trading volumes and slowing inventory destocking.

More importantly, the construction sector continues to face structural weakness stemming from China’s prolonged property downturn. New housing starts fell from approximately 0.95 billion square metres in 2023 to 0.59 billion square metres in 2025, while the area under construction declined from 8.38 billion square metres to 6.60 billion square metres over the same period, highlighting the sustained deterioration in construction-related steel demand.

Although infrastructure investment continues to receive policy support, it has not been sufficient to offset the decline in real estate-related steel consumption. Consequently, underlying rebar demand softened further during May despite prices increasing by 107 yuan/t m-o-m, largely supported by cost-side factors rather than a meaningful recovery in construction activity.

Exports become a less reliable source of support:

Exports declined 10% y-o-y to 34.2 million tonnes (mnt) during January-April 2026 from 37.9 mnt a year earlier. The slowdown was broad-based, with shipments to Southeast Asia falling 10%, the Middle East and Africa declining 17%, East Asia decreasing 16%, and South Asia contracting 12% during the period. These regions collectively account for the majority of China’s steel exports, suggesting that weaker regional demand and rising trade barriers are increasingly constraining overseas sales.

The deterioration in export conditions is becoming increasingly important because exports have played a critical role in absorbing surplus Chinese steel production over the past two years. Rising anti-dumping investigations and import restrictions across multiple markets are reducing the ability of overseas demand to offset weakness in domestic consumption, increasing reliance on domestic demand and supply-side adjustments to balance the market.

Elevated costs continue to support prices:

Despite softer demand conditions, steel prices have avoided a sharper decline due to continued support from the cost side. Freight markets remained elevated following disruptions to global shipping routes and heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. The Baltic Dry Index rallied following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and exceeded the 3,000 level during May, reflecting tighter vessel availability, war-risk surcharges, and stronger raw material shipping demand.

At the same time, coking coal and coke prices remained firm during May amid supply-side constraints and resilient raw material demand. Together with relatively stable iron ore prices, these factors continued to support steelmaking costs and limited downside pressure on finished steel prices.

Meanwhile, steel production growth showed signs of moderating, although blast furnace operating rates remained relatively high. This suggests that while supply growth is slowing, mills have yet to implement widespread production cuts despite weaker demand conditions and shrinking margins.

Outlook:

We expect China’s steel market to remain increasingly dependent on manufacturing demand and cost support as traditional sources of demand continue to weaken. Construction steel is likely to face the greatest challenges through June as rainy weather, slower procurement activity, and continued weakness in the property sector weigh on rebar consumption and raise inventory accumulation risks.

HRC is expected to remain comparatively resilient, supported by demand from machinery, shipbuilding, renewable energy equipment, industrial upgrading projects, and other manufacturing sectors. However, weaker exports and rising trade barriers are likely to reduce the ability of overseas markets to absorb surplus Chinese production, placing greater emphasis on domestic demand and inventory management.

Overall, the market is increasingly becoming a two-speed story. Manufacturing-linked steel demand continues to provide support, while construction demand remains under pressure. Combined with elevated freight costs, firm raw material prices, and moderating production growth, these factors are likely to keep steel prices supported in the near term, although the absence of a meaningful recovery in construction activity suggests upside potential remains limited.