Global crude steel output dips in Jan-Mar’26; Vietnam displaces Iran as 10th largest producer

• • Chinese production falls 5%, ex-China output up by 1%

• • Middle East output plunges 34% amid US-Iran conflict

• • India leads growth among top producers with 11% rise

Morning Brief: Global crude steel production slipped by 2.3% y-o-y to 459.2 million tonnes (mnt) in January-March 2026, as per worldsteel data covering 69 reporting countries. The decline was driven by a 4.6% contraction in China, the largest producing country, with crude steel output from the rest of the world rising marginally by around 1%.

Notably, in March, Vietnam surpassed Iran as the tenth-largest producer, with a 10% rise to an estimated 6.4 mnt. worldsteel data suggests that Iran’s crude steel production more than halved y-o-y to 1.5 mnt, reflecting the impact of the US-Iran conflict. However, as per a SteelOrbis report, the Iranian Alloy Steel Producers Association has contested this, stating that Iranian production totalled 7.26 mnt as compared to worldsteel’s reported 5.77 mnt.

Overall, the Middle East recorded a sharp 33.5% fall in crude steel production, reflecting the impact of military conflict that started on the final day of February. In January-March 2026, the region’s crude steel production fell 9.3%, reversing the 6.8% growth in January-February. Further reductions are likely in April, as US-Israeli attacks damaged plants operated by Mobarakeh Steel and Khouzestan Steel – two of Iran’s largest producers.

Highlights of top crude steel producing countries:

China’s crude steel production fell 4.6% y-o-y due to continued demand-side weakness, led by the real estate sector. Manufacturing activity also slowed, and although infrastructure investment increased, this was insufficient to counter the broader slowdown. Consequently, mills’ profit margins shrank, while steel inventories stayed elevated. Production was also constrained by ongoing capacity control measures, including efforts to eliminate inefficient furnaces and a policy shift toward higher-value output.

India recorded the strongest growth of all 10 countries, with production surging by 10.8% y-o-y as capacity growth continued. Sustained construction and infrastructure growth lifted steel demand, while auto production surged by 22%, supported by goods and services tax (GST) reductions.

The US recorded a 5.7% y-o-y increase, supported by stable construction activity (new housing starts increased 1% y-o-y in Q1CY’26) and stronger manufacturing activity. New orders for durable goods industries rose 6.2% in terms of value, while for transportation equipment, they increased by 9.5% in January-February, according to government data. Meanwhile, imports continued to fall, with total volumes down 34.7% in January-March 2026.

Japan’s crude steel output fell 1.7% y-o-y in Q1, widening from the 0.3% contraction in January-February. The Middle East conflict tightened raw material supply and impacted export orders, leading to a 4.1% decline in March. Moreover, US tariff policies and high volumes of Chinese exports (steel and other commodities) have also dampened demand in steel-consuming sectors such as automobiles and industrial machinery.

South Korea’s crude steel output grew 1.8% y-o-y. Despite the mild recovery, the steel industry continues to face energy and logistics constraints, as well as restrictive trade measures from key importers such as the EU and the US. Supply chain disruptions stemming from the US-Iran conflict have further worsened the situation. In fact, according to a SteelOrbis report, the country has announced a $54 billion package to support the steel industry.

Russia slipped to the sixth position among the largest crude steel producers, with output down by an estimated 10.7%. Russia’s economy continues to struggle under the might of sanctions imposed by Western countries. Elevated interest rates amid persistent inflationary pressures have pushed end-user sectors to slow down capital expenditure. According to steelmaker Severstal, Russian steel consumption fell by 15% y-o-y in Q1.

Turkish crude steel production climbed up by 5.3% y-o-y, supported by robust construction activity. Construction output was up 7% y-o-y in January-February, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, accompanied by post-earthquake reconstruction, infrastructure development, and urbanisation. Despite the growth, momentum slowed from November and December, when steel production growth was in double digits. This could be attributed to weak domestic demand and limited export opportunities following the EU’s phase-in of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

German crude steel production rose 9% y-o-y. However, the country’s steel federation WV Stahl stated that the increase is not fuelled by a recovery in demand but rather inventory restocking. Moreover, annualised projections total 37 mnt, below the 40-mnt mark considered to signal sustainable capacity utilisation, with the automotive and mechanical engineering sectors still underperforming.

Brazil’s output dipped by 3.1%, attributed to elevated import pressure despite a modest recovery in demand.

Vietnam recorded a 10% uptick, supported by a thriving manufacturing sector. Amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China last year, companies seem to have shifted their manufacturing bases to Vietnam, attracted by the US’s lower tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Lower imports (-3% in Q1CY’26) have also boosted mills’ production momentum.

Outlook:

BigMint expects global crude steel production to continue sliding, especially given how the Middle East conflict has disrupted raw material supply chains and raised oil and energy costs. Limited exports of semi-finished steel from Iran and scrap from the UAE (as well as potentially the EU) could also hinder raw material sourcing.

Even demand dynamics have been impacted due to adjustments in shipping routes. Consequently, worldsteel has forecast a minor 0.3% increase in global steel demand. With Chinese demand set for a contraction this year as well, production is likely to moderate, pulling down the global total. Conflict-driven operational halts in the Middle East and persistent energy supply constraints in the EU may also drag down steel production.

As a result, crude steel production is likely to remain on a declining trajectory, potentially marking a fifth consecutive annual drop.