India: BigMint’s coking coal index falls to 2-month low amid cautious buyer sentiment

• • Bids decline, 75,000-t deal closed at $220/t FOB Australia

• • US-Iran war lifts vessel freights, dampening fixture activity

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $240/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 06 March 2026, down by $10/t against the previous assessment on 27 February. The index has fallen to a 2-month low, as similar levels were seen in January 2026. Cautious buyer sentiment and lower bids continued to weigh on prices this week. Australian coking coal offers fell this week.

An eastern India-based steel mill booked 75,000 t of Australian Goonyella PHCC at $220/t FOB Australia for April shipment during the latter half of this week.

Dry bulk coal freights extended their strong w-o-w gains as of 6 March 2026, supported by elevated bunker prices and broader macro uncertainties linked to the ongoing Iran-Israel-US conflict, leading to very few fixtures but at higher levels, BigMint understands. BigMint’s assessment for Panamax vessel freights for coal from Haypoint to Paradip rose by over $2/t w-o-w to $22/t this week.

BigMint has consolidated its PHCC CFR India Index to include material of all origins, including US, Canada, Mozambique, Australia — normalised for quality and freight. With India steadily reducing its reliance on Australian PHCC and increasing imports from alternative sources, this update ensures the index accurately reflects evolving market dynamics and trade flows.

Factors influencing prices:

Indian domestic met coke prices rise marginally: Indian blast furnace (BF)-grade metallurgical coke prices recorded a marginal w-o-w increase on 3 March 2026, supported by balanced domestic demand-supply dynamics and firm import parity levels, despite a mild correction in upstream raw material costs.

As per BigMint’s assessment, in eastern India, BF-grade coke (25-90 mm) prices rose by INR 600/t w-o-w to INR 35,600/t ex-Jajpur.

India’s coking coal imports fall m-o-m in Feb’26: India’s coking coal imports fell m-o-m to 4.4 mnt in February 2026, as per provisional data maintained with BigMint. Imports from Australia fell from 2.7 mnt in January to 1.9 mnt in February owing to weather disruptions.

Indian mills raise HRC, CRC list prices for early-Mar’26 amid cost pressures: Leading Indian steelmakers have increased list prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) by INR 750-1,500/t ($8-16/t) for early March 2026 sales. List prices of HRCs (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) ranged within INR 53,750-55,500/t ($587-606/t) ex-Mumbai. Moreover, CRCs (0.9 mm, IS513 CR1) were listed at INR 60,400-62,750/t ($659-685/t). The price hikes could be attributed primarily to rising raw material costs and reduced imports.

Outlook:

BigMint expects coking coal prices to remain largely stable in a week’s time, given an expected improvement in supplies. However, vessel freights may witness volatility amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.