Indonesia: HBA benchmark eases for late Feb’26 on export uncertainty despite firm underlying sentiment

• • Export restraint from DMO, RKAB rules tightening supply

• • HBA cuts are corrective not demand-driven

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has revised its thermal coal benchmark prices (HBA) for the second half of February 2026.

The adjustment reflects a combination of improving regional demand from key Asian consumers and increasingly disciplined supply behaviour among Indonesian miners, who remain cautious about expanding output amid regulatory uncertainty and domestic supply priorities.

Price performance across segments:

Benchmark movements were mixed across calorific value (CV) categories, indicating differentiated demand patterns.

• • The 6,322 kcal/kg GAR benchmark declined 3% to $102.9/t, reflecting moderation in high-CV buying interest following earlier strength.

• • The 5,300 kcal/kg GAR (HBA-I) index also fell 3% to $71.74/t, suggesting near-term demand saturation and comfortable inventories in select importing markets.

• • Lower-CV grades recorded steeper declines, with HBA-II (4,100 kcal/kg GAR) easing 1.8% to $47.3/t and HBA-III (3,400 GAR) dropping 6% to $33.9/t, as buyers remained price-sensitive and selectively active.

The overall correction indicates a recalibration of prices following earlier firmness, rather than a structural demand slowdown.

Regulatory developments and export dynamics:

Supply-side sentiment continues to be shaped by evolving domestic policies. Reports indicate that exporters may be required to prioritise domestic deliveries before executing export shipments, particularly to fulfil Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) commitments to Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN).

Additionally, the transition from a three-year RKAB (Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya) approval cycle to an annual review mechanism has introduced greater operational uncertainty. The shorter approval horizon reduces production visibility and has led some miners to adopt a conservative export stance. Market sources suggest that several RKAB-approved companies are still in the process of meeting DMO requirements, potentially delaying export clearances, although no formal directive has been issued.

This regulatory overhang has contributed to tighter spot availability in key importing markets, including India, even as benchmark prices softened.

Outlook:

In the near term, the market is expected to remain cautious but supported. Any further downside in high- and mid-CV segments is likely to be limited by constrained export visibility and freight stability. Clarity on RKAB approvals and DMO fulfilment timelines will be critical in determining export momentum and price direction into March. Should domestic prioritisation persist, spot tightness could re-emerge despite the recent benchmark adjustments.