India: HRC-rebar negative spread widens further in Jan’26 but steel prices rally

• • HRC – rebar reverse spread assessed at- INR 2,500

• • Average monthly HRC prices rise over 10% in Jan

• • Primary mills hike rebar prices thrice on fast inventory depletion

Morning Brief: Indian steel prices staged a rally in January 2026, recovering from 5-year lows in December, with surging raw materials prices and adequate policy support emerging as the key drivers. Prices across segments witnessed a sharp uptick, with the mills aggressively hiking prices to meet surging production costs.

As per BigMint assessment, the average monthly HRC price in January was a sharp 10.4% higher than the level prevailing in December, while the average price of BF-rebar in January for the standard 12-32 mm size was assessed at around INR 54,500/t, up 14% m-o-m.

As a result, the HRC-rebar reverse spread in January widened to – INR 2,500 from – INR 700 in December. The spread turned reverse, or negative, since October and was in negative territory for much of 2024-25 due to the sustained weakness in domestic flat steel prices. Under average market conditions, the spread usually hovers around INR 4,000-5,000.

Steel price trends in Jan’26:

HRC prices edge up: In the last week of December, the primary mills hiked HRC and CRC prices by INR 750/t following a hike in mid-December. The trade market moved higher underpinned by mill price hikes and elevated raw material costs during the year-end holiday period. Steelmakers raised prices following the safeguard duty announcement, supported by restocking activity, and positive market expectations, even though demand remained moderate.

Towards the end of January, the market remained firm as the tier-1 mills hiked prices again following a parallel hike in the longs segment. While festive holidays kept demand and trading subdued, mill-led price hikes sparked a rebound in trade-level prices as activity resumed post-festivities. Fast inventory drawdown, too, supported prices.

Rebar market rallies: The primary steel mills increased rebar prices thrice in January on strong material lifting in the trade channel and robust demand from the infrastructure and construction segments. The distribution channel experienced limited material availability for some sizes, as highlighted by market participants.

Inventories at primary mills declined by 15-20%, as per sources. Strong demand from the projects segment and the distribution network led to inventory reduction at mill yards. Most steelmakers are booked out for the coming days, and some are not offering to the projects segment owing to low stocks.

While domestic iron ore prices remained firm amid tight supply of lumps and high-grade ore, coking coal prices surged on supply disruptions. Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices rose by $14/t w-o-w at $254/t CNF Paradip last week. Higher input costs have led to a hike in steel prices.

Outlook:

Given the differential with landed cost of imports, mills still have some space for raising domestic HRC prices and peak season consumption in the January-March quarter will support steel prices. Higher raw material prices, too, create a direct pretext for raising prices. However, amid weak export prospects, domestic supplies are rising faster than consumption. This will limit any sharp price upside. The HRC-rebar reverse spread may narrow in February.