Scrap prices in the UAE improve marginally but VAT uncertainty clouds outlook

• • Domestic scrap demand offsets policy noise

• • Steel market remains cautious ahead of Feb’26

UAE scrap prices strengthened modestly in the week ended 30 January, rising by around AED 6/t ($2/t) w-o-w despite continued uncertainty linked to VAT-related clarifications.

“There is some hesitation on fresh offers due to VAT clarity, but underlying domestic demand in the UAE is strong and continues to support scrap prices,” a UAE-based trader said.

The latest tradable levels were reported at AED 1,145-1,150/t ($312-313/t) for processed HMS and around AED 1,200/t ($327/t) for shredded DAP Abu Dhabi.

• • End-cut scrap: AED 1,200-1,220/t ($327-332/t)

• • Fabrication scrap: AED 1,140-1,160/t ($310-316/t)

• • HMS 80:20: AED 1,080-1,090/t ($294-297/t)

• • LMS: AED 840-860/t ($229-234/t)

Export market:

Indicative shredded prices in the UAE were assessed near $395/t, compared with $380-382/t for UK/EU-origin material, highlighting a notable premium for domestic availability. Market interest for HMS 1 was heard at $370-375/t, with deals including 3,000 t from the UAE booked at $375/t CFR Qasim and 1,000 t of sheared HMS from the UAE at $365/t CFR Qasim.

Offers across origins reflected a wide range, with HMS bundles at $360-365/t CFR and pure GI bundles near $372/t CFR Qasim. Buying levels were largely capped at $375-380/t.

UAE steel market:

In the long products segment, the UAE rebar market has moved into a wait-and-see mode ahead of the February selling cycle. Most mills have refrained from formally announcing new prices as they assess demand conditions and regional supply dynamics. While one integrated Omani producer raised February offers by AED 16-20/t, the move has yet to set a clear direction for the broader market. Other suppliers largely rolled over January levels, with deals reported around AED 2,350-2,365/t CPT UAE, broadly unchanged month on month. Higher domestic availability following the return to full production at a major local mill, combined with the approaching Ramadan period and continued Saudi supply, is limiting mills’ pricing flexibility and keeping buyers cautious in the near term.

The UAE hot-rolled coil (HRC) market remains unsettled, with buyers resisting higher offers amid unclear workable levels. Prime Chinese suppliers were heard offering near $520/t CFR, while South Korean mills targeted around $550/t CFR. However, market participants assessed realistic tradable levels closer to $495505/t CFR, broadly in line with previous sales. Across the wider GCC, HRC prices firmed by around $10-15/t w-o-w, driven mainly by recent upward adjustments from Chinese mills.

Earlier sales of around 30,000 t of Chinese HRC at $485/t CFR Jebel Ali continue to be viewed as more reflective of market fundamentals. Reports of fresh deals near $470/t CFR into the UAE and Saudi Arabia were later clarified as November-origin bookings, with no confirmed Russian HRC transactions reported so far in 2026.

Outlook: UAE scrap prices are expected to stay firm but volatile, supported by moderate domestic demand, though upside remains capped by export resistance. Rebar prices are likely to stay range-bound, while HRC may remain stable to slightly firm, with buyer resistance limiting further gains.