UAE: BigMint’s scrap index inches up by $3/t w-o-w; Emirates Steel rolls over Feb’26 rebar prices

• • RCM-related uncertainty limits near-term spot buying

• • Exports slow amid pending VAT clarity, bid-offer gaps

UAE scrap prices increased by AED 12/t ($3/t)w-o-w in the week ended 23 January, even as steel mills largely held firm on their buying prices. Comfortable inventory levels and the steady arrival of previously booked cargoes continued to ease near-term procurement pressure, keeping mills cautious in the spot market.

Buying sentiment was further tempered by uncertainty over trade direction following the first week of VAT pricing under the reverse charge mechanism (RCM) implementation.

BigMint’s processed heavy melting scrap (HMS) index increased by AED 12/t ($3/t) w-o-w to AED 1,141/t ($311/t).

An Abu Dhabi-based trading house noted that UAE scrap exports are currently at a standstill, as the market awaits formal confirmation on VAT applicability. “Export activity has largely paused because VAT clarity is still pending. Until that comes through, suppliers are hesitant to commit volumes,” the trader said.

• • End-cut scrap: AED 1,190-1,200/t ($324-327/t)

• • Fabrication scrap: AED 1,130-1,150/t ($308-313/t)

• • HMS processed: AED 1,135-1,145/t ($309-312/t)

• • HMS 80:20: AED 1,050-1,080/t ($286-294/t)

• • LMS: AED 830-850/t ($226-232/t)

Emirates Steel Arkan (ESA) kept rebar prices unchanged for February 2026 sales at AED 2,648/t ($721/t) ex-works Abu Dhabi, excluding 5% VAT. Prices have now remained stable for four consecutive months. Market sentiment is cautiously steady, supported by consistent construction demand, with mills opting for selective price adjustments rather than announcing a broad-based hike.

Export market:

A Pakistan-based scrap importer noted, “There is a clear bid-offer gap in the market. Buyers are in a wait-and-watch mode and are unwilling to chase higher levels until there is greater clarity on VAT treatment and overall trade direction.”

On the export side, Pakistan remains the key outlet, with EU-origin shredded trading around $375/t CFR Qasim against offers of $378-380/t. Prices are expected to firm up, supported by strong export demand, higher overseas benchmarks, and rising freight costs, despite comfortable inventories.

Reported deals during the week:

Shredded UAE (1000 t) sold at $383/t CFR Qasim

HMS 80:20 UAE (250 t) sold at $355/t CFR Qasim

Outlook:

UAE scrap prices are expected to remain stable in the near term. Clarity on VAT treatment and improvement in export liquidity, alongside firm overseas benchmarks and rising freight costs, could support a gradual upward price bias despite comfortable inventories.