India: Trade-level HRC prices edge up w-o-w following mill price hike announcements

• • Mill price hikes push HRC prices

• • Post-festive trade activity rebounds

Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) in India increased w-o-w following the announcement of price hikes by mills, with HRC prices assessed in the range of INR 50,000-52,900/t ($550-581/t). In line with this trend, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices also edged up w-o-w, with prices assessed at INR 54,500-60,500/t ($599-665/t).

BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) increased by INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 52,400/t ($576/t) on 20 January against INR 51,700/t ($568/t) on 13 January. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices inched up by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 57,900/t ($637/t) on Tuesday against INR 57,300/t ($630/t) a week ago. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market updates:

Last week, festive holidays kept demand and trading subdued. However, this week, mill-led price hikes sparked a rebound in trade-level prices as activity resumed post-festivities.

Demand remains moderate, but fewer working days from bank holidays on Saturday and Monday have pushed participants to liquidate swiftly for payment management. One trader observed, “We anticipate another price rise next month.” Across the board, metal prices continue trending upward.

Import volumes: India’s bulk imports of HRCs touched 151,637 t as of 16 January, based on vessel line-up data. Around 1,65,079 t of additional cargoes are expected by early-February.

Export volumes: India’s bulk exports of HRCs touched 20,253 t as of 16 January and around 155,800 t of additional cargo are being shipped.

Outlook:

HRC prices in India are likely to remain elevated, supported by recent mill-led hikes, moderate demand and steady trade activity. Going forward, demand trends and further pricing actions by mills will determine market direction.