Weekly Round-Up: Asian, Russian billet offers edge higher; Iran market sidelined by political unrest

• • Futures strengthen; spot billet demand remains weak in China

• • Scrap-led support lifts Turkish billet imports marginally

Global billet prices firmed in the week ended 16 January 2026, supported by improving sentiment, though buying interest remained limited, especially across Southeast Asia, as wide bidoffer gaps continued to restrict deal activity.

Asian billet export prices have strengthened over the past couple of weeks, driven by improved sentiment in the Chinese steel market and gains in futures. This encouraged sellers to test higher price levels, while buyers remained cautious and selective amid lingering demand uncertainty.

In Turkiye, the deep-sea imported scrap market remained firm during the week, supported by seasonal supply tightness, limited seller participation, and higher European collection costs. Expectations of rising US domestic scrap prices further tightened export availability, lending support to Turkish import prices.

US-origin HMS 80:20 was heard around $376/t CFR, while European winter collection costs climbed to the high EUR 270s/t, keeping offers firm. Despite weaker rebar demand, mills stayed active buyers due to the absence of cheaper billet alternatives.

Black Sea billet:

Russian billet offers for early February shipment were heard at $442-445/t FOB Black Sea, up $3-4/t w-o-w. Export availability is tightening as some mills have already exhausted their export quotas, which is limiting spot volumes and supporting expectations of a further $3-5/t price increase in the near term.

Asian billet market

Asian billet export prices firmed modestly over the past two weeks, largely tracking improved sentiment in the Chinese steel market and gains in futures. Chinese mills raised 3SP billet offers to $450-455/t FOB, up from $440-445/t FOB earlier, though the move was primarily futures-led rather than demand-driven.

Market participants noted that while small spot volumes were heard around $455-460/t FOB, these transactions were isolated and not representative of the broader market, which continues to trend closer to $445-450/t FOB China amid limited buying interest.

In Southeast Asia, higher offers struggled to gain traction. Chinese 5SP billets in the Philippines were quoted higher at $460-465/t CFR but attracted little buyer interest. Similarly, in Thailand, Chinese 3SP billets were offered at $460/t CFR, up from $450-455/t CFR previously, while workable bids remained closer to $450-452/t CFR.

On the domestic front, Chinese billet prices remained unchanged w-o-w at RMB 2,970/t ($426/t) during 9-16 January. Weak winter demand and rising inventories continued to cap upside, while mills controlled supply to prevent downside. Spot trading stayed slow ahead of the Chinese New Year, keeping the physical market stable but subdued.

Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures rose RMB 33/t w-o-w to RMB 3,141/t ($451/t), recovering from early-week weakness. Sentiment improved on policy expectations, firmer export outlook, and higher northern mill offers, allowing futures to outperform the spot market, even as underlying demand conditions remained fragile.

CIS billet market:

The Turkish billet market remained range-bound, with import prices rising $5-6/t w-o-w to around $465/t CFR, driven by selective mill bookings and heightened price sensitivity, rather than any meaningful recovery in end-use consumption.

In the import segment, Malaysian-origin billets were offered at $500-510/t CFR for March shipments, while Chinese material for February was quoted lower at $470-475/t CFR, intensifying competitive pressure on domestic producers.

Iran billet market:

Despite ongoing civil unrest, a nationwide internet shutdown, sharp currency devaluation, and broader economic disruptions, market participants do not expect an immediate impact on Iran’s billet export prices, noting that the market is largely in wait-and-watch mode as conditions stabilise.

When asked whether the currency’s fall to a record low could pressure export prices, a market participant said billet pricing is unlikely to be affected, as exports remain USD-linked and are driven more by regional demand, sanctions-related trade channels, and production economics than by short-term currency fluctuations.