India: HRC-rebar reverse spread broadens in Dec’25 as flat steel market sees slow recovery

• • Reverse spread widens to INR – 700/t from INR – 200/t in Nov’25

• • HRC market witnesses late recovery as mills hike list prices

• • Spread may turn positive on mill price hikes, fresh export quotas

Morning Brief: Indian steel prices in December 2025 witnessed an uptrend in the latter half of the month, with prices staging a rebound from five-year low levels seen in November. However, the recovery, preceded by list price hikes taken by the primary mills in mid-December, was anything but substantial, even as basic demand and trade sentiments remained in a bear grip.

BigMints benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC, IS 2062, 2.5-8mm) prices averaged INR 47,100/t in December, an increase of just INR 300/t from the average November level. On the other hand, benchmark blast furnace reinforcement bar (12-32mm, IS 1786), or TMT bar, prices averaged INR 47,800/t, up INR 800/t from the average November level.

Therefore, the spread or gap between HRC and rebar prices in the domestic market in December remained in the negative zone for the second consecutive month. The reverse spread, or difference between rebar and HRC prices, stood at INR – 700/t, as per BigMint assessment.

Under normal market conditions HRC commands a premium of around INR 4,000-5,000/t over BF rebar. The spread had turned positive after many months in July 2025 only to tick back into negative zone from November due to persistent weakness in global flat steel prices and weak export market sentiments.

Steel price scenarios in Dec’25:

HRC market sees late recovery: The HRC market in December started off on a weak note, with oversupply and high inventory levels weighing on sentiment. Prices continued to edge lower in the first two weeks of the month. Export allocations to the EU for Q4CY’25 were exhausted keeping India’s HRC export index flat. CBAM-related uncertainties weighed on exports as well as muted sentiments in the Middle East due to regional holidays. On the domestic front, trade was sluggish due to liquidity constraints.

However, the leading mills raised list prices of HRC in the week ended 19 December, after keeping them stable for sales in the beginning of December compared to levels prevailing during end-November. This was due to firm domestic iron ore prices and imported coking coal prices reaching a one-and-a-half-year high in mid-December. Coking coal accounts for over 45% of BF-based steelmaking costs. Prolonged INR weakness pressures input costs.

Also, currency depreciation pushed HRC prices by increasing the landed cost of imports. This currency-led cost escalation reinforced domestic mills’ pricing power.

List prices were again hiked in quick succession in the last week of December, although market fundamentals remained moderately balanced, with withdrawal of trade discounts in some key markets but also buyer caution being reinforced due to the uptick in prices.

BF rebar market movements: Although BF rebar prices had edged down to five-year lows in the beginning of December on high inventory levels pressuring prices, some primary mills increased prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($11/t) for deliveries in December compared to prices at the end of November. Meanwhile, some other producers rolled over their prices against November levels. This was preceded by an overall increase in IF rebar prices across key markets in the country.

However, sources informed BigMint that buyers were reluctant to accept higher offers resulting in slow trade activity. Though distribution channel demand remained subdued, buyers showed resistance to higher prices, with the typical gap between bids and offers increasing.

In the last week, the tide turned: Tier-1 increased prices by INR 500-1,000/t ($6-11/t) for end-December deliveries. Inventories at primary mills declined, signifying an improvement in dispatches and buying activity. Material offtake improved in the trade segment toward end December, some distribution channel participants told BigMint.

Outlook:

The primary mills have increased HRC prices by INR 1,000-2,000/t ($11-22) on 3 January and prices currently are around INR 4,000 higher than the December average. HRC trade prices have moved decisively higher, with sentiment increasingly tilting in favour of further upticks, as the hikes in late December have been largely absorbed, as per market participants.

Policy support in the form of the tiered, three-year safeguard duty on steel imports and stiff raw materials prices have been instrumental in mills announcing early January hikes. It is also likely that the primary mills will be looking to raise rebar prices in tandem with this bullish momentum in the market, especially with a view to the shrinking BF-IF price gap and expectation of firm demand in the last quarter of the fiscal.

Therefore, steel prices will rise across the board, but the HRC-rebar spread may return to positive territory in January if the pace of recovery in the HRC segment is faster than rebar if only because mills seek to bring an end to a sustained patch of weakness in HRC prices seen, as a matter of fact, throughout 2025. Fresh EU export quotas, currency depreciation and better export prospects (despite CBAM) may support this trend.