BigMint’s India steel index rebounds sharply w-o-w but will rally sustain?

• • Primary mills hike BF rebar prices by $6-11/ w-o-w

• • Strengthening coking coal prices support steel prices

• • Next round of HRC list price hike likely in first week of Jan’26

Morning Brief: BigMint’s India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic steel market, edged up sharply by 2.2% w-o-w, as assessed on 26 December, to reach levels last seen in mid-September 2025. The sharp uptick was due to price hikes undertaken by mills amid firming up of raw materials costs and a positive turn in market sentiment, thanks to affirmative trade policy action and expectation of a general rebound in market conditions with the start of the New Year.

While both the flat and long steel indices showed significant w-o-w recovery, the flats index registered a 2.8% increase compared to 1.5% for longs.

Highlights of price movements:

HRC, CRC prices surge: BigMint’s benchmark assessment for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) rose to INR 52,000/t on 26 December against INR 47,100/t ($525/t) on 19 December. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices increased to INR 55,700/t on 26 December as against INR 54,200/t ($604/t) on 19 December. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Leading mills raised list prices of HRC and CRC by INR 750-1,000/t in the week ended 19 December after keeping them stable for sales in the beginning of December compared levels prevailing during end-November. However, market activity was largely need-based, with buyers procuring cautiously as prices firmed up. Some buyers made purchases to hedge against further price hikes.

Moreover, the price hike was driven by rupee depreciation and a rise in coking coal costs. A weakening rupee improved export competitiveness by making Indian shipments cheaper in global markets, while also enhancing rupee realisations on dollar-linked sales, thereby supporting margins.

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $238/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 19 December, up by $11/t against the previous assessment on 12 December 2025.

Mills hike BF rebar prices: The tier-I mills increased rebar prices by INR 500-1,000/t ($6-11/t) for end-December deliveries. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 48,000-49,500/t ($536-553/t) on landed basis. Following this, trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices are expected to increase w-o-w. In the projects segment, prices hovered at around INR 47,000-48,000/t ($525-536/t) FOR Mumbai basis.

Inventories at primary mills have declined recently, signifying an improvement in dispatches and buying activity. Material offtake has improved in the trade segment this month, some distribution channel participants told BigMint.

On a weekly basis, IF rebar prices increased in the range of INR 300-1,300/t across regions. Trading remained moderate, as manufacturers continued to quote higher offers. Buyers were active on steady demand from the project and retail segments. Dispatches of previously booked material were smooth, restricting the scope for further discounts from manufacturers. Mill inventories remained at around 8-12 days across regions.

Outlook:

The domestic steel market is entering 2026 in the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding global demand, trade policies and tariffs and their impact on exports. It is expected that the price hikes taken by the mills for flats and longs will be absorbed by the market unlike in November due to a) expectation of seasonally positive market momentum in Q4FY’26, and b) strengthening raw materials prices. Mills may go for another round of hike for flats in the first week of January.

However, a lot will hinge on the pace of inventory drawdown in the coming days and the continuation of the current over 7% growth rate in Q4 on the back of heightened fiscal-end economic momentum.