Global rice market stabilises but price trends remain split between Asia and the West
- Asian exporters lift quotations as supply tightens
- USDA projects reshaping of trade flows in CY’26
The global rice market, which saw sharp swings through 2025, is showing early signs of stabilisation, although pricing trends remain split between Asia and the Western hemisphere. According to the latest USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade report, Asian exporters ended the year with strengthening quotations as tightening supplies and steady buying interest drove prices higher, laying the groundwork for notable shifts in 2026 trade flows.
Thai 5% broken rice led the rally, rising $38 to $381/t as dwindling local inventories met persistent regional demand. Pakistan followed with a $13 increase to $349/t supported by active buying from core importers. Vietnam posted a smaller uptick of $7 to $362/t reflecting broad regional strength despite moderated export pace. India, constrained by policy-linked export controls and adequate domestic availability, saw its benchmark price remain unchanged at $343/t.
Western exporters lose ground as demand softens
While Asia strengthened, prices in the Americas slipped under pressure from reduced shipment pace and softer overseas inquiries. US long-grain quotations eased $6 to $553/t as rough-rice exports slowed. Uruguay mirrored the decline, falling $6 to $462/t on weak buying interest across its traditional Latin American markets. The contrasting movements underline a widening pricing gap between East and Westa trend expected to influence procurement decisions in early 2026.
Stocks rise, trade realigns as Asia expands export footprint
USDA’s 2026 outlook points to a material realignment in global trade patterns, driven by rising stocks in India and Thailand and expanding shipments from other Asian suppliers. Burma is projected to increase exports by 300,000 t on the back of stronger sales into China, while China itself is set to boost its exports by 100,000 t as demand from its key markets strengthens. These gains are expected to offset a modest contraction in shipments from Cambodia.
The import landscape is also set for recalibration. Madagascar is forecast to raise its purchases by 150,000 t after a weaker domestic harvest curtailed local availability. Tanzania is similarly expected to step up imports by 100,000 t to meet rising demand for competitively priced rice. China’s import programme is projected to expand by 100,000 t as attractive global prices continue to support inbound flows. Benin remains a notable outlier, with imports likely to fall by 100,000 t following improvements in domestic cultivation and milling output.
Outlook
Taken together, firmer Asian prices, easing Western quotations, and shifting trade balances underscore an industry adjusting to new supply fundamentals. With stocks building in key producing countries and demand patterns evolving across Africa and Asia, the global rice market enters 2026 on a more stable footing but clear regional divergences that will shape pricing and trade strategies in the year ahead.
